After a chalky NCAA Tournament last year, everyone has one thing on their minds for this season: upsets. While some think last year was an anomaly, others think it's a sign of things to come in the NIL era, where the top teams in the country boast much bigger roster budgets than most of the mid-majors.
So, will the upsets return this year?
For anyone interested in making predictions on the NCAA Tournament's biggest upsets, Kalshi allows users to place real money on the outcome in most states. Additionally, we have a Kalshi promo code to help get you started.
NCAA Tournament Biggest Upset: Kalshi Odds, Predictions
This tournament is hard to pinpoint, so the odds for the biggest upset vary widely.
To quickly go through the obvious categories, betting on a No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed (the 15 category) feels like a lost cause, given how dominant the top teams in the sport have been this season. On the opposite side of things, betting on a 5+ seed margin to be the largest is pretty simple, as any No. 1-6 seed losing in the first round would satisfy that market. The likelihood that those teams go a combined 24-0 is extremely low, even if the tournament is again chalky.
The 7+ seed margin and 13+ seed margin are also both really likely and unlikely, respectively. A 7+ seed margin just requires one of the No. 5 seeds to lose to a No. 12 seed, which feels like it happens nearly every year. Adding more possibilities to that market, if any of the No. 1 seeds lose before the Sweet Sixteen, they would lose to a No. 8, 9, or 16 seed, also fulfilling that market. The 13+ seed margin is very unlikely because it would require a No. 2 seed losing to a No. 15 seed, or to a No. 14 seed much later in the bracket.
However, things get interesting in the remaining two categories.
The biggest upset difference resolving to a 9+ seed margin is sitting at essentially 50-50 odds. That could come from anything as simple as a No. 13 seed beating a No. 4 seed, or something as complicated as a No. 11 seed beating a No. 2 seed in the Sweet Sixteen. Those two options are easily the most likely possibilities for that market to resolve to yes.
Once again, even if this year is chalky overall, there's still a solid chance that one No. 13 seed could sneak into the Round of 32, or that a No. 11/12 seed could get hot and shock the world by beating a top-two seed in its region. That market would be a lot more friendly if it were an 8+ seed margin (which would involve any No. 9 seed over No. 1 seed, a No. 10 seed beating a No. 2 seed, or a No. 11 seed beating a No. 3 seed), but it's still an enticing possibility.
The other slightly likely possibility is an 11+ seed margin for the biggest upset. Any No. 1-3 seed losing in the first round would resolve this to yes, or a No. 12/13 making a magical run and beating a No. 1 seed is another possibility. I am relatively pessimistic about that happening, but that's also why the market is at less than 30% odds.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
