Buffalo vs. Arizona State Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

#6 Buffalo vs. #11 Arizona State NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

• Spread: TBD
• Over/Under: TBD
• Date: Friday, March 22
• Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Location: Tulsa, Okla.
• TV: TNT

Buffalo's Statistical Profile

Buffalo was well balanced at both ends of the court, ranking 23rd and 27th in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively. That helped lead the Bulls to a the best regular season record in the MAC at 16-2, and a conference tournament championship.

While the MAC isn’t exactly a basketball powerhouse, Buffalo performed well in its out-of-conference games, winning on the road at both West Virginia and Syracuse.

The Bulls are led by senior guard CJ Massinburg, whose 18.3 points per game ranked third in the MAC, and .403 three-point shooting percentage ranked eighth. In Buffalo’s win over West Virginia, Massinburg dropped 43 en route to the overtime victory.

This is Buffalo’s second straight year in the Big Dance, and fourth trip in five years. The Bulls will be looking to build off last year’s first-round upset win over Deandre Ayton and Arizona. In their four recent tourney games they’ve gone an even 2-2 against the spread.
— Danny Donahue

• Record: 31-3
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 22
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 23
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 27
• Tempo Rank: 7

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Arizona State's Statistical Profile

Arizona State didn’t help its case with a loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 tourney but managed to squeak in with an at-large bid regardless.

The Sun Devils got off to a strong start with big wins over two significantly better teams (Mississippi State and Utah State) in November, but also had two poor losses in December to Vanderbilt and Princeton.

James Harden’s alma mater lost in the First Four last year to Syracuse and hasn’t made it past the Round of 32 since 1995. One of the quicker-paced teams in the country, the Sun Devils are capable of putting up some high point totals.

However, oddsmakers kept up with that potent offense, as overs went just 13-17 in their games. — Mark Gallant

• Record: 22-10
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 61
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 71
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 75
• Tempo Rank: 45

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Buffalo-Arizona St./St. John's Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

There is plenty of argument that Arizona St. should not be in this tournament with losses to Vanderbilt and Princeton. The Sun Devils had issues turning the ball over during the season, and a draw of St. John's is not favorable for Arizona State. The Red Storm are 6th in the nation in turnover percentage, and I expect them to advance against Buffalo.

Buffalo has not lost since February 1 and should be able to handle St. John's pressure. The Bulls are 19th in turnovers and 63rd in opponent turnovers. St. John's is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation, leading to plenty of extra possessions for Buffalo, which ranks top-20 in offensive adjusted efficiency. While the Bulls are not a 3-point shooting team, they are top-20 in the nation in 2-point percentage.

Look for Buffalo to survive the Red Storm pressure, dominate the paint and have a better shooting percentage in this potential matchup.

Early ATS lean: Buffalo
Early bracket pick: Buffalo — Collin

Sean Koerner's Buffalo-Arizona State Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: Buffalo -4.5
• Total: 149.5
• Proj Score: Buffalo 77 | Arizona State 72.5
• Win Probability: Buffalo 66% | Arizona State 34%