NCAAB Odds, Pick for BYU vs Oklahoma

The Big 12 is the most fearsome conference in college hoops. While teams like Kansas, Houston and Baylor sit atop the league, others like the BYU Cougars and Oklahoma Sooners have done enough to warrant a single-digit NCAA tournament seed.

That's nothing to scoff at, and on Tuesday, the two play in Norman.

The Oklahoma Sooners have been one of the sport's biggest surprises in 2023-24, as they enter Tuesday's game at 16-6 overall and 4-5 in Big 12 play.

However, as of late, Oklahoma has looked vulnerable, falling short in three of its past four games, including a pair of home games against Texas and Texas Tech.

Oklahoma ranks 22nd in Defensive Efficiency, which proves its defensive dominance. The Sooners don't play the most aggressive style in terms of forcing turnovers (only forcing turnovers on 17% of possessions), but they force some terrible shots.

Opponents have an effective field goal percentage of only 45% and shoot only 28% from 3. That's an ideal formula for slowing teams down, especially an elite offensive foe like BYU.

The biggest problem for Oklahoma is on offense. The Sooners failed to score more than 65 points in two of their three recent losses. Regardless of how elite of a defense you have, scoring less than 65 points won't result in a ton of wins.

Want to see a trend? Oklahoma's leading scorer Javian McCollum scored just 24 total points in three of the past four games — all losses. In the one win, McCollum scored 21 points against Kansas State.

The offense goes as McCollum goes, and it could be a long offensive night if the dominant scorer fails to reach his season average of 14.5 points.

While Oklahoma is surprising in its own right, BYU is arguably the most surprising team in the Big 12. Mark Pope's squad enters play on Tuesday with a pristine record of 16-5 overall and 4-4 in conference play, which isn't bad for an inaugural season in the sport's most dominant league.

If you're looking at BYU from a pure talent perspective, it may have the least amount of raw talent in the Big 12.

The one thing BYU has no shortage of? Perimeter shooting. BYU attempts 3s on 51% of field goals (second-highest rate) and connects on 36% of those shots. If BYU hits 15 3s in a game — paired with reliable defense (23rd in Defensive Efficiency) — beating it won't be easy.

All five of BYU's top scorers average 10 or more points, led by bench gunner Jaxson Robinson with 13.6 points per game.

The status of big man Aly Khalifa is one to watch, as he missed the Cougars' last game against West Virginia, which put Fousseyni Traore back in the lineup. BYU doesn't have an elite post-passer without Khalifa (4.3 assists per game), but Traore is a better rebounder and scorer inside.

Although BYU's lineup is smaller and littered with shooting, it boasts one of the best defensive rebounding percentages in college hoops. You won't pound BYU on the offensive glass, as all five players get into the mix and gang rebound.

Pope is a terrific coach and his team does all the little things well, which compliments having an elite standout skill like shooting.

I know Oklahoma is in the midst of an unimpressive run and the metrics love BYU, but I can see this game being difficult for the road Cougs.

As I mentioned earlier, Oklahoma is one of the best units at defending the 3-point shot. BYU won't win a conference road game if the Sooners shut down the perimeter shots.

That could be the case, so the home team is my best bet for this one.

Pick: Oklahoma ML