The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the UCF Knights in Orlando, FL. Tip-off is set for 5 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
UCF is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -176. The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Cincinnati vs. UCF prediction and college basketball picks for January 11, 2026.
Cincinnati vs UCF Prediction
My Pick: Over 149.5
My Cincinnati vs UCF best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Cincinnati vs. UCF Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 149.5 -115 / -105 | +146 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -104 | 149.5 -115 / -105 | -176 |
- Cincinnati vs UCF spread: UCF -3.5
- Cincinnati vs UCF over/under: 149.5 points
- Cincinnati vs UCF moneyline: Cincinnati +146, UCF -176
Cincinnati vs UCF College Basketball Betting Preview
Cincinnati Basketball
Wes Miller’s seat is very hot right now, with the Bearcats sitting at 8-7 on the season and off to an 0-2 start in Big 12 play.
The Bearcats fumbled an opportunity for a signature win against Houston a week ago, eventually falling 67-60. Three days later, West Virginia squeaked out a 62-60 win against the Bearcats.
Notice the repetition of the number “60." Even though Miller has made an effort to get this team to play faster (78th nationally in tempo), the extremes have widened with this team.
While this is Miller’s best defense yet at Cincinnati (eighth-best unit in the country, per KenPom), the offense is atrocious (212th).
The Bearcats are taking a ton of 3s (47.6% of their attempts come from long range), yet they’re only shooting 31.8% on 3s.
Freshman Shon Abaev is shooting 24.7% from deep, theoretical stretch big Baba Miller is 2-foot-20 on the season and supposed-sniper Kerr Kriisa is at 33%. Also, Kriisa may be out for this one.
On the positive side, Day Day Thomas has been great, shooting a career high 46% from deep, and Baylor transfer Jalen Celestine is at 38%.
With former UCF Knight Moustapha Thiam and the aforementioned Miller, Cincy has one of the best shot-blocking duos in the country. This team is very physical on the defensive end and has multiple high-level perimeter defenders in Thomas and Sencire Harris.
UCF Basketball
UCF entered the AP Poll this week after its strong 12-1 start to the season. The Knights will likely fall out of next week’s edition after their 87-76 loss at Oklahoma State, but nonetheless, this is a good team that will likely be in the NCAA Tournament mix.
Johnny Dawkins retained absolutely nobody from his 2024-25 roster, which is part of the reason why his team was picked to finish 14th in the Big 12 Preseason Poll.
UCF bought low on Riley Kugel, and Dawkins has given him the freedom to hoop. He leads the team with 14.1 points per game, while adding 2.5 assists and solid 3-point shooting (38.2%).
It’s a balanced attack for this group, as Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks and Jamichael Stillwell all average between 12.1 and 13.5 points per game. Fulks, a fifth-year point guard at his fourth school, is top-50 nationally in assist rate, averaging 6.6 per game.
UCF plays fast (22nd in offensive tempo nationally) and lives on the offensive glass, as the Knights rank 11th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.
Dawkins' teams are typically better on defense than they are on offense, but that trend shifted last season and has carried on to this season.
UCF is 38th on KenPom offensively and down at 80th on the other end.
Cincinnati vs. UCF Betting Analysis
A face-off between familiar foes, as these teams have been in physical battles since they were in the AAC together.
Looking back on the last few matchups, Miller and the Bearcats had won five in a row, until UCF was victorious 88-80 in the inaugural College Basketball Crown in April, 88-80. UCF got revenge on Cincinnati's 93-83 win in Orlando two months prior.
Although Miller’s team has struggled to score all season and has only topped 65 against one of its last six games against high-major opponents, I like the over here.
Both of these teams want to run and get shots up before the defense is set. UCF might not find its typical success on the offensive glass against Cincinnati’s twin towers, making it even more important for the Knights to run and generate open 3s in transition.
Also, with how physical both of these teams are, I expect a lot of fouling and teams checking into the bonus early on in halves.
149.5 is a good number, so I’ll take the over.
My Pick: Over 149.5 (Play to 152.5)
