College Basketball Odds, Pick for Clemson vs Miami

Miami's Nijel Pack (lower body) is available vs. Clemson, per Jon Rothstein.

The biggest matchup of Wednesday’s slate comes in Coral Gables, where the Miami Hurricanes play the No. 16-ranked Clemson Tigers.

Entering the year, Miami was ranked inside the top 15, despite losing Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller from last year's Final Four team. While it’s taken Miami time to get on track following a historic season, the Canes now face a nationally-ranked Clemson team.

Here's college basketball odds and a pick for Clemson vs. Miami.

The Tigers' offense leads the way, ranking top-20 in Offensive Efficiency, according to KenPom. Brad Brownell’s crew shoots 39% from deep on healthy volume and attacks inside and out as good as any team. Once Clemson establishes the interior, the perimeter becomes a serious weapon.

Clemson's only loss this season came by two points in a road environment at Memphis. Without a doubt, Clemson is arguably the most pleasant surprise in college hoops.

One of the main reasons for Clemson’s improvement is forward PJ Hall morphing into a top-five player in America. Hall averages 20 points and six rebounds per contest, while shooting 56% from the floor and 39% from deep.

I don't think Miami has anyone capable of defending Hall, even Norchad Omier. The size advantage weighs in Hall's favor, and he'll try getting Omier in foul trouble, since the Canes lack depth behind him.

Clemson's offense wasn't consistent last year, mainly in the backcourt. The addition of Joe Girard III — an established high-major guard who knocks down 3s with ease — was the perfect compliment for the athletic Chase Hunter. Both provide reliable play, and adding an elite shooter just makes Clemson more versatile.

I think Clemson's offense will have a field day against the unimpressive Miami defense.

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Miami's questionable depth could get tested with injuries hampering starters Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar. The Canes won the past two games with Pack on the shelf, allowing freshman Kyshawn George to slide into the lineup.

Things get dicey if Poplar isn't playing, since he's the team's leading scorer and overall best player. Poplar played 15 minutes before leaving early against North Florida. That threw Christian Watson into major minutes. Expect Watson to replace Poplar if he's out, and George to stay in for Pack.

Truly, things look entirely different if Miami is without two 40% perimeter shooters. Poplar is performing like an All-ACC first-teamer, averaging over 16 points and shooting a video-game-like 50% from deep on 60 attempts. He's probably the ACC's best perimeter shooting threat, but he's also a productive driver.

Miami ranks 27th in Offensive Efficiency, which is the Canes' pattern for winning. It won't get many defensive stops, but if the offense scores 85+ points, who needs defense? The Canes shoot 41.5% from deep, most of which comes from Pack and Poplar.

So, Miami's winning path without its two perimeter stalwarts comes from Omier and Matthew Cleveland attacking inside. That's the opposite of how teams can beat Clemson's reliable defense. Teams that beat Clemson attack the guards one-on-one, not Hall and Ian Schieffelin.

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KenPom labels Clemson as three-point favorites, and most sportsbooks have the spread at Clemson -1.5.

Which side is off the mark? I think the books missed the mark here, especially with Miami's injury questions.

Clemson is the better team, but home-court advantage probably puts the game close to even.

If Miami is without Poplar/Pack, that could push the line close to four points or greater.

Pick: Clemson -1.5 (Play to -4)

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