College Basketball Best Bets: Three Man Weave’s 3 Top Picks (Monday, January 15)

On MLK Day, we have college hoops from Noon ET to 9 p.m. ET. The early games are strong, but the late games have true betting value for us.

Dive in below for college basketball best bets and Three Man Weave's three top picks for Monday, January 15, including Notre Dame vs. Boston College. Take it away Matt Cox!

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Matt Cox

The college basketball betting market behaves like a pack of circling sharks who smell blood in the water whenever a Big Ten home team pops on the schedule. Such is the case tonight when Iowa heads to The Barn to take on Minnesota, a team the Hawkeyes actually swept last season.

Both teams played on Friday. Iowa travels into Minneapolis fresh off a dominant home victory against Nebraska, while Minnesota felt the wrath of a desperate Indiana team on the road.

Switching those home and road designations is the skeleton key of this handicap. Big Ten home teams continue to run up the score on oddsmakers, now up to 22-14 against the spread this season.

While this line looks to be overbet — the line opened at +1 offshore before getting smashed all the way to -3 — only one key number was crossed during that move (-2). Yes, some value has evaporated with the market steam, but far less so than a typical four-point line move.

Matchup wise, the Gophers will have the edge up front, despite a surging Owen Freeman patrolling the paint for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were able to keep Nebraska’s more modern offense at bay on Friday, but the Gophers will look to turn back the clock at home tonight with their bruising frontline.

Tonight, look for Ben Johnson to elevate Pharrel Payne into the spotlight with a favorable interior matchup against the more frail Hawkeyes.

Pick: Minnesota -3

By Matt Cox

This is another counterpunch against the market, as the opening number was bet up to -9.5 this morning. It’s never advised to go blindly against market momentum, but never be scared, especially if you can identify the reason behind the move.

Boston College is fresh off a tough road loss at Clemson, a game in which it battled admirably despite being extremely shorthanded. Earl Grant talked about a bug running through the team, which sidelined multiple key contributors.

Tonight, All-ACC candidate Quinten Post is confirmed back in action, a critical return for the Eagles — but, largely why the number was bet up. Additionally, the Irish will be down a key defender and “glue guy” in Tae Davis.

The personnel situation may seem to point in the other direction, but anytime you can back Micah Shrewsberry as an underdog — especially at a discount — it’s an investment worth making. Shrewsberry is 3-1 ATS this season as a road underdog and 7-3 ATS as a 'dog regardless of location.

This will be BC’s first time preparing for Notre Dame, which employs a unique and surgical offense built on a steady stream of pick-and-roll action.

BC’s perimeter corps is more athletic than usual, but the lack of familiarity with the scheme should give the edge to the Irish.

As long as Notre Dame can clamp down defensively, nine points will feel like a mountain for Boston College to climb.

Pick: Notre Dame +9.5 (Play to +9)

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By Matt Cox

McNeese is off to a scorching start under the insurgent Will Wade and his revamped roster of high-major talent. However, the Southland is a tricky maze to navigate for first-year head coaches. Travel is erratic and styles are helter skelter, a sour combination for any large favorite.

Given McNeese’s analytical profile — it's up to 92nd overall in KenPom — it'll be laying double digits frequently, especially at home.

Just two days ago, McNeese failed to cover the number, marking its third straight ATS loss. SELA fell at Lake Charles by nine points by slowing the game down to a crawling 61 possessions.

Lamar is more transition oriented than SELA, but the Cardinals have had recent success playing rock fights, which may be the best path to success tonight on the road.

The slight concern is catching Lamar off an OT win on Saturday — an impressive showing at Nicholls State — but Lake Charles is only a 150-mile bus ride away and a lot is on the line tonight.

The Cardinals are 3-0 in the Southland, too, making tonight’s bout a "must-win" in the Southland title chase — thus, any risk of an emotional letdown is rendered moot with the stakes this high.

In a nutshell, McNeese couldn’t cover this same spread last game against SELA, which looks like an inferior opponent to Lamar at this juncture.

Sorry Will Wade, but we’re taking the points.

Pick: Lamar +12