NCAAB Best Bets for Monday’s Conference Tournaments

The 2023-24 college basketball regular season is officially in the books, and that means Champ Week is here.

While the major conference tournaments don't tip off until tomorrow, there's still betting value on the board.

So, here's college basketball best bets and odds, including six picks for Monday's conference tournament games on March 11.

College Basketball Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By Jim Root

The Privateers won wire-to-wire as underdogs for me on Sunday, and I’m riding with them once again on Monday.

Picked third in the preseason poll, New Orleans represents one of my favorite conference tournament angles: a team with high expectations that underperformed during the regular season, often due to nagging injuries.

The Privateers used 11 different starting lineups during the season, as almost every player was in and out of the lineup at some point.

On Sunday, they were as close to full strength as they’ve been since December. Guard Khaleb Wilson-Rouse returned after missing the regular-season finale, and his defense and playmaking (five assists) made an immediate impact.

His presence allows star guard Jordan Johnson to be more of a scorer, and he dazzled. Johnson racked up 34 points on 11-of-24 shooting, consistently breaking down SELA’s defense to devastating effect.

The regular-season matchups with Lamar are admittedly frightening. New Orleans lost by 20 in both games, getting gashed at the rim defensively. However, the Privateers’ performance on Sunday against SELA is “proof of concept” of their defense against a similarly active frontcourt.

I expect New Orleans to again battle for 40 minutes with arguably the best player on the floor in Johnson.

Pick: New Orleans +9 (Play to +7.5)

By Doug Ziefel

Stony Brook's run to the Coastal semifinals has been fun to watch, but unfortunately, the entertainment of its matchups has put it in a bad spot tonight against Hofstra.

The Seawolves narrowly advanced to this matchup after squeezing out a double-overtime win over Drexel. They now must step back onto the floor a day later, and tonight's matchup will be their third game in three days.

In addition to having tired legs, they'll face a Hofstra team that’s relatively fresh after dominating Delaware yesterday. Hofstra took both regular-season meetings against Stony Brook, and the market is confident it'll make it a season sweep.

Since it opened last night, this number has gone up, with the Pride going from 5.5-point favorites to consensus 7-point favorites. However, given the circumstances in which Stony Brook enters this game, Hofstra still has value at the current number.

Hofstra has a massive edge on the offensive end of the floor, ranking 17th in the country in effective field goal percentage. It also holds an edge on the other end, as Stony Brook ranks just 199th in offensive effective field goal percentage.

All signs point to Hofstra running away with this victory and cruising to tomorrow night's title game.

Pick: Hofstra -6.5 (Play to -7.5)

By Matt Cox

The stage is set in Indianapolis for the semifinal showdown in the Horizon tournament.

The neutral-site venue feels like a perfect backdrop for Northern Kentucky, as its zone induces a hearty number of outside jump shots.

If that anecdote isn’t convincing, consider the Norse’s stellar conference tournament track record under Darrin Horn. Since Horn took over in 2020, NKU is 8-3-1 against the number in conference games.

This marks its fifth game in three years playing at Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indy, a familiar battleground for the Norse and a testament to their consistent postseason track record.

In the last two Horizon Championship game runs, NKU held opponents in this venue to 43, 71, 63 and 61 points respectively, with the lone loss (71) coming in the 2022 championship game to an offensive juggernaut in Wright State.

Keep an eye on defensive anchor Keeyan Itejere, who’s officially back in the fold and serves as the kryptonite to Milwaukee’s relentless rim attack. Itejere dominated in the first regular-season meeting between these two, but he was saddled with foul trouble when Milwaukee exacted revenge in mid-February.

If he can deliver 20-to-25 strong minutes in tonight’s rubber match, the Norse will wield a major sword up front.

Pick: Northern Kentucky -1.5 (Play to -2)

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By Ky McKeon

Omaha and Denver both survived first-round games in dramatic fashion, winning their respective contests by a single point.

A win for Denver tonight would mean its first-ever trip to the Summit finals. For Omaha, it would be its first trip to the championship game since 2019.

Regardless of who wins this game, we can be fairly certain that points will be scored in abundance. In the prior two matchups between these two squads, the total points scored were 175 and 163 — each well above the closing total.

Denver is the worst defensive team in the Summit and can’t stop its own shadow. The Pioneers have allowed 1.13 and 1.26 points per possession to the Mavs this season and have been unable to contain the terrific Frankie Fidler, who’s averaging a whopping 31.5 points per game against Denver this season.

Denver also wants to push in transition and play fast, a style Omaha is more than happy to oblige, as it’s an excellent transition team itself and can get easy buckets against the hapless Denver D.

Omaha isn’t the best defensive team either, and the nation’s leading scorer — Tommy Bruner — should find plenty of paths to points tonight.

DU head coach Jeff Wulbrun’s intricate cutting motion offense is tough to prep for on a short turnaround, and the Mavs don’t have the luxury of a day off like the Pios do.

Expect an up-tempo game north of 70 possessions and a plethora of clean looks and easy buckets.

Pick: Over 154.5 (Play to 156)

By Matt Cox

The Grizzlies aren't the usual “grizzled,” “bearish” bunch we’re accustomed to under Travis DeCuire. Montana is creeping up to top-75 territory in Offensive Efficiency, per KenPom, but a sub-250 defense isn’t bothering any offense in the Big Sky.

However, a peek under the hood sheds a rosy outlook on Montana’s defense. The Griz still boast the league’s second-best interior defense, holding opponents to 50% shooting inside the arc, all while limiting opposing 3-pointers better than anyone else in the conference.

In the sharpshooting Big Sky, that’s a recipe for success.

Montana is especially set up well to defend the Vikings’ unique, positionless lineup tonight. Laolu Oke, Te’Jon Sawyer and Dischon Thomas are all mobile, athletic bigs who can stay with the “tweener” Portland State forwards in the mid-post and out on the perimeter.

DeCuire made the proper adjustments defensively in the second meeting between these two, and the Griz controlled the game wire-to-wire at home (albeit, after being blasted at Portland State on Jan. 25).

However, Portland State’s relentless pressure could be problematic late in the game, as it was in the most recent meeting. Montana managed to hang on, but not before a dicey stretch of porous turnovers.

Getting dynamic freshman guard Money Williams back in the mix should alleviate the pressure on veteran point guard Brandon Whitney, but the Portland State press is a reason to isolate the first-half angle.

This should eliminate any late-game desperation run from the Vikings, who have proven to be a late-game cockroach time and again.

Pick: Montana 1H -4

By John Feltman

Gonzaga is the talk of the WCC due to its recent surge in the past month. The Bulldogs ended their regular season on a high note, dominating Saint Mary’s on the road.

However, not many people are giving San Francisco a chance in the contest, and I think that’s foolish.

Remember, the Dons led in the second half of the first matchup against the Bulldogs and let the game slip away in the final minutes.

The Bulldogs also lost to Santa Clara during conference play and trailed at the half against Pacific, which went 0-16 in the conference. Their recent play shows they've turned a corner, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Many public or casual bettors will look back on the last matchup at the Chase Center, where the Zags dominated from the opening tip.

It’s a down year for the WCC, but the Dons have arguably the best player in the conference in big man Jonathan Mogbo. Mogbo averaged 15, 10 and four throughout the season, and despite his lacking 3-point shooting, he’s a consistent offensive force.

The Dons rank second in the WCC in 2-point percentage, which is important since the Zags were first in the conference in defensive 2-point percentage.

Forward Ben Gregg has been very impactful since he entered the starting lineup for the Bulldogs, so I expect them to continue to rely on their interior scoring. However, the Dons are an above-average defensive team on the interior, so it’ll be key for them to hold strong throughout the contest.

If the Zags struggle to score inside due to their eight-day layoff, they'll be on upset alert.

The Dons have to win the battle out on the perimeter and continue to protect the basketball. If they do that, they have more than enough talent to hang tough with the Bulldogs.

It’s a gut feeling more than anything, but the market has gone too far on the Bulldogs. I will happily take the points with the Dons.

Pick: San Francisco +8.5 (Play to +7)