NCAAB Odds, Pick for Duke vs Louisville

A motivated Duke Blue Devil team is making the trip west to Louisville to take on the Cardinals on Tuesday. Louisville managed to earn a surprise ACC victory by defeating Miami on the road, but that has been the only conference win it has managed thus far. Duke will look to get back on track after suffering a surprising loss to Pitt at home Saturday.

If Zach Edey didn't exist, it's very possible the national player of the year frontrunner would be Duke's Kyle Filipowski.

The Blue Devils have likely slightly underperformed their preseason expectations thus far. Questions still linger regarding Jon Scheyer's coaching ability and the development of their young players. But no one is questioning Filipowski's ability to carry Duke to the heights fans expect the Blue Devils to reach.

In Duke's four losses this year, Filipowski has tallied 25, 26, 12 and 19 points. The clear takeaway from each loss has been that Filipowski needs help from his supporting cast. Freshman guard Jared McCain has made his presence known lately, particularly since the loss to Georgia Tech. He's already a better perimeter shooter than arguably anyone on Duke's roster, yet Scheyer would likely prefer he was more efficient from the outside.

Duke has an inarguable talent and coaching advantage in this one. Even Scheyer skeptics would admit he is already a superior coach to Kenny Payne. And what would likely be a sleepy spot for Duke will not be now after its most recent game was a home loss.

Duke managed to blow out Louisville last season with a similar roster makeup, and I'd expect this year's team to do the same. Given the Blue Devils play at a much quicker tempo than in 2022-23, they should have more chances offensively to stretch their lead.

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Louisville is simply outmatched in every aspect of this game, as you probably could have guessed without even reading this article. The Cardinals need to hope the Louisville faithful show up in droves, but hope is the operative word in that sentence, because the Cardinals have given their fans little reason to show up and support since the hiring of Payne.

Calling for someone's job isn't normally part of what I like to do when previewing a single game. Yet, Payne has proven an inability to recruit talent that Louisville brought to its program without a second thought 10-15 years ago.

Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has started every game for Louisville in his second year in the program this season. He will likely earn the tall task of guarding and limiting Filipowski. Huntley-Hatfield isn't nearly as skilled with his footwork as Filipowski, which will make it difficult for him to stay in front of the Duke forward if he catches a pass on the perimeter. Not to mention, Filipowski is more than capable of rising and knocking down perimeter jumpers.

Louisville's result will frankly be reliant upon which Duke team shows up. If the scars of the Pitt loss roll into Tuesday night, Louisville can try to force turnovers and get its crowd into the game. I simply think the spot is poor for Louisville. The Cardinals would have preferred the Blue Devils to have taken care of business against Pitt, allowing them to potentially catch Duke looking past Louisville and towards Clemson this weekend. Unfortunately, Duke's loss to Pitt waived its ability to look past anyone.

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I expect a fully motivated Duke team and a coach in Scheyer that will leave his starters in for most of the game to help them build confidence. In a down year for the ACC, Scheyer will likely also be aware that blowing out inferior opponents will provide a boost to his team's analytical rankings — which will factor into seeding for the NCAA Tournament committee.

If you'd rather take Duke to cover the full-game spread, I certainly wouldn't talk you out of it. My strongest lean, however, is to trust the Blue Devils to come ready to take it to the Cardinals from the tip. Duke could cover the full-game spread in the first half alone if it is motivated to do so.

Expect Jeremy Roach to take care of the ball and set the tone defensively as Duke's leader and Scheyer's coach on the floor. Take the Blue Devils to cover the first-half spread and quickly put the Pitt loss in the rearview mirror.

Pick: Duke 1H -10 (Bet to -11)

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