NC State vs Ole Miss Odds, Pick for Tuesday
Photo by Grace Bradley/NCAA Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Casey Morsell (NC State)
NC State vs Ole Miss Odds, Pick
Another leg of the ACC/SEC Challenge is in Oxford, Mississippi, featuring the Ole Miss Rebels and the NC State Wolfpack.
NC State returns from Sin City after splitting two games against Vanderbilt and BYU in the Vegas Showdown.
Ole Miss last played six days ago when it traveled to Philly. It narrowly defeated Temple after blowing a double-digit second-half lead.
Below, I have college basketball odds and a pick for NC State vs. Ole Miss on Tuesday, Nov. 28.
Let's start with Ole Miss, which won the offseason coaching carousel by hiring the controversial Chris Beard. The one thing everyone knows for sure about Beard is he's a surefire winner. He won big at Little Rock, Texas Tech and Texas.
That's what Beard does, but it isn't coming easily at Ole Miss — yet.
Typically, Beard-coached teams make their money on defense, which led Texas Tech to the 2019 national title game. However, the Rebels haven't bought in defensively, as it takes time to implement a system.
If Ole Miss isn't performing on defense, it limits the team's overall ceiling. The Rebels currently rank 153rd in KenPom's Defensive Efficiency.
The Rebels had quite a few scares so far this season, including narrow wins over Sam Houston, Detroit Mercy and Alabama State. While it's not entirely surprising — since the roster is mostly different outside of Matthew Murrell — the talent is too strong to be struggling against those types of opponents.
The offense isn't much better. Without Allen Flanigan's clutch-scoring ability, Ole Miss might have three losses instead of zero. That's an indictment of how effective Flanigan is (20.2 PPG), but it also outlines the offensive concerns.
Ole Miss needs more shot-creation and better point guard play, as Jaylen Murray is the only lead guard on the roster. That's not promising, considering Murray played a complimentary role at Saint Peter's.
Ole Miss plays slow, sitting at 334th in Adjusted Tempo, according to KenPom. That's the style Beard wants to play, and he'll likely keep it the same.
This team is built to play at a slow tempo, but the hope is that the Rebels can make enough shots to win a slugfest. Also, Flanigan needs help — and fast.
Ole Miss is the exact opposite of the high-octane offense of NC State. The Pack rank 14th in Adjusted Tempo and want to run in transition at any opportunity.
It may not have the one-on-one win capability it had last year when Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner led the charge, however, Jayden Taylor, Casey Morsell and DJ Horne form a fairly formidable backcourt trio for Kevin Keatts.
All three starting guards can go off for 20+ points on any night; it just depends on which is hot and which one Keatts wants to get involved.
I should've mentioned the main in the middle — DJ Burns Jr. — who makes everything happen in NC State's half-court offense. The highly-skilled center uses his incredibly flawless footwork and soft touch to average a team-best 14.5 points per game.
Burns will face the shot-swatting phenom Jamarion Sharp, but size is no issue for Burns. He's one of the most undervalued players in America.
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While Ole Miss struggles against inferior competition, NC State punishes that level. NC State won its three buy games by 13+ points and defeated a really solid Abilene Christian squad by 20 points.
The Wolfpack have an established identity on offense. They know exactly how to win games — and this crew has plenty of players capable of handling the ball, whereas Ole Miss is lacking in that area.
Pick: NC State ML (Play to -3)
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