NCAAB Odds, Pick for Georgetown vs Xavier

Below, we have NCAAB odds and a pick for Georgetown vs Xavier.

Two early-season losses as a big favorite loom large for the Xavier Musketeers. Sean Miller and company dropped home games to Oakland and Delaware, putting the Musketeers seriously behind schedule in pursuit of a ticket to the Big Dance.

The good news for Xavier? Big East play offers a ton of chances to offset those bad losses with a big win.

Victories over fellow bubble-dwellers Seton Hall, Providence and Butler help, but they aren't enough to move the needle. At present, just one of the 70 bracketologists aggregated by Bracket Matrix considers Xavier worthy of a tourney slot.

Friday night, however, does not offer a win that would earn Xavier any credit. Instead, the Musketeers find one of the rare landmines to be had in Big East play, seeing the struggling Georgetown Hoyas come to town as big underdogs.

Ed Cooley's decision to leave Providence for Georgetown raised some interesting philosophical questions about the college basketball coaching carousel.

Cooley built a program at Providence that was expected to make the NCAA Tournament every year. His Friars made the Big Dance in six of his last nine years at the helm, with the canceled COVID-19 year also likely leading to a bid.

Georgetown, meanwhile, hadn't earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament since 2015, with Patrick Ewing's lone tourney appearance coming after a fluke Big East Tournament championship run. Despite that, Cooley saw the institutional advantages at Georgetown, believing it to be a better place to build a program with a Final Four or (gulp) national title ceiling.

This season, Providence is still in a better place than rebuilding Georgetown. Cooley's decision bets on that not being the case much longer.

His work rebuilding the Hoyas started with a win in the transfer portal, pulling Jayden Epps from Illinois after he had a promising season for the Illini. The promise has continued, with Epps posting 18 points and four assists per night as a Hoya this season.

Assuming the portal doesn't catch his eye again, Epps is a building block for the future.

The rest of the roster doesn't offer much excitement for this year or down the road. Maybe if you squint, freshman Rowan Brumbaugh has done some nice things, but other than that, Georgetown has struggled, even with an older roster littered with transfers from around the country.

A team with this many veterans and a coach as sharp as Cooley should not rank 274th in defensive efficiency. In Big East play, the Hoyas rank second-to-last in both offense and defense, leading only despicable, lowly DePaul.

Interior defense has been a major red flag. Georgetown is allowing opponents to shoot over 63% at the rim, good for 322nd in the country.

The Hoyas have yet to hold a Big East opponent to under 1.1 points per possession — not even DePaul, which had only accomplished that feat against one other opponent (Chicago State).

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For the teams jockeying for position in the middle of the Big East standings, three games on the schedule are simply must-win occasions — both meetings with DePaul and the home game against Georgetown.

For a Xavier team sitting 3-3 in the conference and teetering on the edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble, this game is a bold, italics, "scream it from a megaphone" level of must-win.

Thankfully for Xavier, it's starting to play some sharp basketball after recent dominant wins over Providence and Butler.

Desmond Claude has emerged as a star in his sophomore season. He combined for 47 points in those two emphatic wins, his fourth and fifth games topping the 20-point mark.

Claude's downhill driving style has been a great complement to the outside game of Rice transfer Quincy Olivari, who's shooting 43% from downtown on plenty of volume.

If there are concerns about Xavier, they come inside the arc.

Miller lost his entire frontcourt — Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter — to season-ending injuries before the season even tipped, leaving plenty of questions in the paint.

North Texas transfer Abou Ousmane has stepped up, especially on the offensive glass and as a rim protector, but he isn't the kind of dynamic player who can attract defensive attention. He's also had real trouble staying on the floor, notching four or more fouls in 10 of his 17 games this season.

Xavier's off to a quirky start offensively in Big East play.

The Musketeers are shooting the best 3-point percentage in the conference in the early going — north of 38% — after making only 33.6% in non-conference play. Meanwhile, the Musketeers are shooting the worst 2-point percentage in the Big East through six games.

You'd expect both to normalize, at least to some extent. Sure, that means a few nights of cold 3-point shooting are likely on the way, but for now, Georgetown's matador perimeter defense is a welcome sight for a team struggling inside the arc.

Expect Claude to continue his hot streak, attacking off the bounce and finding little resistance at the rim.

Georgetown's last two outings have been better, covering spreads against Seton Hall and UConn. But that won't last forever, and Xavier's ready to pounce.

Pick: Xavier -14.5 (Play to -16)