College Basketball Odds, Pick for Mississippi State vs Auburn

While the SEC headliner is in Tuscaloosa this weekend, Alabama’s arch-rival Auburn has a massive home game of its own.

The Tigers are still looking to add key wins to their postseason resume (only one Quad 1 win) to match their outstanding predictive metrics. A home date with Mississippi State currently falls just outside of Q1 — the Bulldogs rank in the NET, rather than top 30 — but this is still a clear NCAA Tournament foe.

Similarly, the Bulldogs are eager to climb the S-curve and improve their seed come Selection Sunday.

Both squads are coming off brutal midweek losses against masterful individual performances. Auburn fell at Tennessee due to Dalton Knecht’s 39-point explosion, short-circuiting a strong Tigers effort on the road.

Mississippi State lost at the buzzer to Kentucky in a game where Wildcats guard Reed Sheppard painted the final stroke of his 32-point, five-rebound, seven-assist masterpiece with a floater at the horn.

Both teams could certainly use a Saturday pick-me-up, rather than carrying a losing streak into March.

Like many SEC squads, Mississippi State has been a different team away from home. Just 2-6 against the spread on the road this season, the Bulldogs have been outclassed in hostile territory.

It's worth noting that MSU’s two road covers have come in its last two road games, blowing out both Missouri and LSU. Both games have an asterisk, though, as neither Tiger foe had their starting point guard available.

A third straight Tiger road trip awaits, and this foe is far more potent — and healthy — than either Mizzou or LSU. To find success, head coach Chris Jans needs his team’s defense to travel the way it did against those shorthanded foes.

Typically the identity of a Jans-coached squad, MSU has had issues defending away from home. Kentucky, Alabama, South Carolina, Florida and Ole Miss all scored 1.06 points per possession or (way) better.

Despite scoring dynamo Josh Hubbard’s best efforts, these Bulldogs simply do not have the firepower to keep up with that kind of scoring.

Instead, the strength of these Bulldogs is in their size and versatility. DJ Jeffries and Cameron Matthews are five-position defenders, Tolu Smith and Jimmy Bell are a “thunder and thunder” pairing on the block and 6-foot-5 mega athlete Shawn Jones can be highly disruptive.

That means MSU’s blueprint to winning at Auburn should be similar to Kentucky’s: slow the game down, win the rebounding battle… and it wouldn’t hurt if the Tigers shot 4-of-22 from beyond the arc again.

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Much like Mississippi State, Auburn has been much better at home — and fortunately for the Tigers, they’re in the Jungle on Saturday afternoon. This year, Bruce Pearl’s squad is 9-5 against the spread at Neville Arena, where it's 28-17-1 over the last three years.

With their uptempo, pressuring style, the Tigers clearly feed off the energy of their rabid crowd. Having an elite rim defense helps take away easy baskets for opponents, and emphatically swatted shots are a firebrand for this explosive fan base.

Few players do that better than Johni Broome, a one-man wrecking ball at the bucket. Broome ranks 70th in NCAA history (since 1979-80) in blocked shots with 330, and he could sneak into the top 50 if the Tigers play deep into the postseason.

Even scarier is that his backup, Dylan Cardwell, actually rejects more attempts per minute than Broome. In other words, there's no respite for opposing finishers.

Considering Mississippi State’s deficient perimeter shooting, this could be a major matchup edge for Auburn. If the Bulldogs can't make shots, they’ll be forced to test Broome and Cardwell in the post and on drives — typically a fool’s errand.

Auburn also received a boost with the quick return of Jaylin Williams from injury. A frightening fall against Kentucky brought fear he might miss the remainder of the season, but he played 21 effective minutes at Tennessee on Wednesday night.

Expect him to reclaim his spot in the Tigers' starting lineup, allowing Chad Baker-Mazara to return to his super-sub role.

The indicators here point me toward an Auburn wager, and that matches my gut sense as well.

The Tigers’ last home game was a disappointing dud against Kentucky, and I expect Auburn’s effort to reflect the desire to correct that faux pas.

Additionally, Auburn played extremely well at Tennessee and got Williams healthy. Because of Knecht’s Herculean effort, though, we’re getting Auburn in a slight “buy-low” spot off a defeat.

Admittedly, Mississippi State is also coming off a loss, but the Bulldogs have been so shaky on the road — especially defensively — that I can't trust them in one of the sport’s best environments.

Winning by double digits may seem ambitious, but all of Auburn’s 13 home victories have been by 11 or more, including wins over teams like Alabama, South Carolina and Texas A&M. Welcome to the Jungle, Mississippi State.

Pick: Auburn -9.5 (Play to -12)