NCAAB Odds, Pick for Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma

It's Bedlam on the hardwood as the 10-13 Oklahoma State Cowboys head to Norman to face the 17-6 Oklahoma Sooners.

Conference play has been a reality check for both clubs, as the Cowboys are 2-8 while the Sooners are 5-5 in Big 12 games.

The Cowboys have run through a gauntlet of quality opposition and have come out banged up. Eight of their 13 losses on the season have come against opponents ranked inside KenPom's top 50, and they have another on tap with the Sooners.

Speaking of the Sooners, this rivalry matchup will be their last break for a while. Six of their previous seven games come against teams ranked inside KenPom's top 35, with the other being the second matchup against the Cowboys.

So, is this a spot to capitalize on the Sooners looking ahead?

The Cowboys have been right in the middle of the pack offensively, ranking 167th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 125th in effective field goal percentage.

However, we could see them struggle in this matchup.

Oklahoma State relies heavily on 3-point shots, with over 37% of the Cowboys points coming from downtown, the 29th-highest mark nationally.

The Pokes aren't afraid to attack with volume from downtown, ranking 28th nationally in 3-point attempt rate. They make nearly 35% of 'em, but the Sooners' defense is built to contain that.

Oklahoma ranks third nationally in 3-point shooting allowed. The Sooners are elite at contesting shots, closing out on 65% of opposing catch-and-shoot opportunities (top 20 nationally).

They also hustle on the defensive glass, leading the Big 12 in defensive rebounding rate during conference play.

It could be a long night at the office unless the Cowboys can step outside their comfort zone.

On the other end of the court, the Sooners have crushed the interior. 44% of their total points come in the paint, and they're converting over 60% of their shots down low.

Meanwhile, the Pokes rank 180th nationally in 2-point shooting allowed, allowing over 34 paint points per game (23rd percentile). Nearly half of Oklahoma State's points surrendered come in the paint (ninth percentile).

The only saving grace for the Cowboys may be the Sooners' shaky ball handling, although Oklahoma State has also struggled with turnovers.

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I mentioned the Sooners have a tough road ahead, but we should expect them to play hard against their rivals here at home.

I expect both squads to be highly motivated, which should show on the defensive end.

Look for Oklahoma to contest every Oklahoma State 3-point attempt. And while the Pokes are vulnerable on the interior, they should be able to avoid turnovers and defend in the half-court, hanging around in a hard-fought rock fight.

Expect a low-scoring affair and wager accordingly.

Pick: Under 139.5

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