NCAAB Odds, Pick for Oregon vs UCLA

Don't look now, but the Pac-12 has a new leader. That's the Oregon Ducks, who pulled even with the Arizona Wildcats with their victory over USC on Thursday night.

However, they must keep the ball rolling on the road this Saturday in Pauley Pavilion against a UCLA team that appears to have found its stride of late.

The Bruins come into this game having won four of their last five games, with the only loss coming to Arizona by single digits.

This Oregon team has done a complete 180 since conference play began. It's now 7-3 in Pac-12 play and has really started to gel on the offensive end.

The Ducks are a team that can beat opponents from anywhere with N'Faly Dante dominating the paint and Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad stretching the floor with their perimeter shooting.

However, against the Bruins, they'll need to stretch the floor because UCLA has struggled to close out on shooters. If the Ducks' backcourt can get it going from long range, look for passing lanes to open up as UCLA fights over screens.

The Bruins' defensive strength comes in the paint, but their size will be exposed as the Ducks space the floor on their way to another solid performance.

On paper, it's easy to see how the Bruins have struggled on the offensive end of the floor. They come into this matchup ranking 328th in effective field goal percentage and 334th in 2-point field goal percentage.

However, looking deeper, their struggles mainly come from the outside. UCLA shoots only 35% from midrange and 33% from beyond the arc. The one area left is in the paint, where it has made 58% of its shots.

It should be no secret that the Bruins need to work the ball inside, and given Adem Bona's scoring ability, they should be able to find success.

Bona will have to contend with two Ducks equal in size, but Oregon has been most susceptible in the paint. We'll most likely see some two-man game from Sebastian Mack and Bona to open up lanes to the basket, but it will not come easy.

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This matchup is a tough one to call. It's clear the Bruins are being undervalued in conference play with their shooting struggles dissipating — but there's an angle we can take that accounts for their progression.

We know the Ducks are rolling offensively and will play much faster than UCLA, but oddsmakers expect the Bruins to hang around if they remain efficient.

Those signs point to the over, as both teams' offensive success will hold throughout this one. While the tempo is not ideal, I anticipate some late-game fouling to help us to the window.

Pick: Over 134.5