NCAAB Odds, Pick for San Jose State vs Nevada

The Mountain West is consistently one of the most exciting conferences to watch in college basketball because of the parity among the top teams in the league. There's very little separating the top teams in the conference and the result is highly competitive games night in and night out.

There's a natural let-down for the top-tier teams when they face the bottom of the league though, and that creates potential spots to fade these big conference favorites.

Nevada hosts San Jose State on Friday night in a matchup that looks pretty lopsided on paper. The Wolf Pack opened as 12.5-point favorites following their 34-point beatdown loss in The Pit at New Mexico on Sunday.

You'd expect Nevada to respond off that loss, but it's also easy for the Wolf Pack to overlook the lowly Spartans given Nevada also has a trip to conference leader Utah State next week.

There are some real matchup concerns for San Jose State here, and unless they have elite shot-making, it's hard to see them stay in this game.

Tim Miles had a 20-win season at San Jose State last year, which hadn't been done this century for the Spartans. He loaded up on size with last year's team, dominated the glass, outplayed teams in the paint and even beat Nevada in the conference tournament. The Spartans had a winning record in Mountain West play for the first time since joining the league.

This current version of San Jose State is much smaller and doesn't have nearly the same depth but makes up for it by being an elite shooting team from outside. The Spartans have multiple shot-making guards who can pull up from anywhere. They have to be an efficient first-shot offense because the three players who made them dominant on the glass last season are no longer with the program.

The Spartans look more like they did defensively in year one under Miles, when they struggled to force turnovers, rebound and protect the rim. They rank outside the top 200 in defensive metrics, and while they've been a little unlucky guarding the 3, San Jose State's defense can't defend enough without fouling to stay in this game.

Nevada's biggest advantage in this matchup is free-throw disparity. Few teams in the entire country get to the line as much as Steve Alford's Wolf Pack, and that has been true for multiple years with this core group of players. Given that Nevada is at home, San Jose State commits fouls at one of the highest rates in the country and the Spartans don't have much bench depth, foul trouble has the potential to be a major issue in this game.

The Wolf Pack have struggled majorly since conference play began overall, with a 3-4 record. The only wins came against Air Force, Fresno State and Colorado State, all at home. They haven't traveled well at all, and their reliance on the free-throw line makes them vulnerable away from home.

Nevada's biggest problem since league play began, though, is its inability to rebound. Most of the Mountain West has dominated the Wolf Pack on the glass, but now they'll face the worst rebounding unit in the league and one that cannot overpower them to create extra possessions.

The Wolf Pack are a pretty well-drilled first-shot defense and they're not going to give up nearly as many offensive rebounds and second-chance looks as they would to other Mountain West teams.

Nevada's current team is almost exactly the same as last year, when San Jose State beat it in overtime during the conference tournament. The Wolf Pack are not only likely out for revenge here, but they are also playing after an embarrassing loss that knocked down all of their metrics.

If this game were played a week ago, it would be lined closer to 15. Buy the discount on Nevada to exploit its free-throw advantage and pull away as San Jose State has to use more reserves.

Pick: Nevada -12