TCU vs Oklahoma State Odds, Pick for Tuesday

TCU and Oklahoma State will both look to get back on track in a Big 12 matchup in Stillwater, Oklahoma, on Tuesday.

The Horned Frogs have dropped back-to-back games to Cincinnati and Iowa State to fall to 13-5 overall and 2-3 in conference play. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are winless through their opening five league games, owning an 8-10 record on the season.

This should be a pair of desperate teams, which sets up a great midweek battle on ESPN2.

Coach Jamie Dixon’s squad has started Big 12 action by playing through a gauntlet of opponents. Through its first five league games, four of those foes were ranked in the top 25.

The Horned Frogs do not have a bad loss on their resume. All five defeats on the season have come against teams who rank in the top 60 in the NET.

Even against the tough schedule, Emanuel Miller has been a strong performer for Dixon. The senior forward leads TCU and is in the top 10 in the conference in scoring at 16.3 points per game. Miller was named the Big 12 Player of the Week last week after guiding the Horned Frogs to wins over Houston and Oklahoma, and he’ll need another big performance here.

After a 20-win season and a trip to the NIT quarterfinals, coach Mike Boynton Jr. made a big shift in philosophy in the offseason. Boynton wanted to get more balance to his roster by bringing in scorers and ball-handlers to complement his stout defense.

In the process, Oklahoma State only brought back three scholarship players from last season. Boynton recruited a top-10 freshman class and filled in the gaps with veteran transfers.

One of those key additions has been point guard Javon Small. The East Carolina transfer leads the team in scoring (13.8 PPG), assists (4.5 APG) and free-throwing shooting (86.4%).

However, the roster overhaul has not gone to plan so far for Boynton. The Cowboys have failed to pick up a win in conference play or even a victory against Quad 1 or 2 opponents.

With how difficult the Big 12 is this season, it is hard to circle where the win might come. Three of its next four are at home, which is likely where Oklahoma State needs to take advantage.

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At some point, there is going to be betting value on Oklahoma State to catch one of these conference foes in a sleepy spot. However, the number still hasn’t gone too far yet. So, my best bet is to take TCU at -4.5, which I would bet to -6.

The Horned Frogs have proven they can go on the road and compete in tough environments. They lost by two at Kansas and in overtime at Cincinnati, and both of those squads are better than the Cowboys.

When Oklahoma State loses, it hasn't been competitive. Yes, it did play Baylor to a four-point game at home, but that was followed by three losses by an average of 21.7 points per game. This is also the same team that lost at home to Abilene Christian and fell to Creighton by 14.

For this particular matchup, I like the fact that TCU is 21st in forcing turnovers, according to BartTorvik. That will be key against an Oklahoma State team that is outside the top 300 in giving away turnovers offensively.

The Cowboys are also 28th in the country in the percentage of their points coming from 3-pointers. That does not bode well against the Horned Frogs, who are 46th in opponents’ 3PT%.

There will be betting value on the Cowboys soon, but I just don’t think we are there yet.

Pick: TCU -4.5 (Play to -6)