UCLA vs USC Odds, Pick: Lean Towards This Side

In theory, the rivalry game between the UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans should have plenty of juice.

These teams were picked to finish second and third in the Pac-12 preseason poll. UCLA looked to build off its success in the past two seasons, while USC reaped the rewards of some major wins in the transfer portal and on recruiting trail.

However, this game carries almost no excitement. Both teams are 8-11 on the season and multiple games under .500 in conference play. Barring a legitimate miracle, neither of these teams will see the postseason. USC's two leading scorers, Boogie Ellis and Isaiah Collier, have both missed recent games due to injury and may also miss this game.

In hindsight, it was optimistic to forecast success for UCLA in its first year without Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jaquez Jr. A youth movement, including an influx of talent led by star freshman Sebastian Mack, was expected. Mack has been excellent and leads the Bruins in scoring. Around him, the Bruins have so little scoring or shooting ability that their offense ranks 208th nationally. The Bruins rank outside the top 300 in college basketball in 2-point shooting and 3-point shooting percentages.

UCLA has failed to score more than 60 points in seven games against power-conference level competition (six power conference teams, plus Gonzaga). The Bruins have also yet to make double-digit 3s in a game and are averaging just 4.74 shots from beyond the arc per game — the 10th-lowest mark in Division I hoops.

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USC has the same record as UCLA and an even worse mark in Pac-12 games, but at least the Trojans have some viable excuses.

The Trojans lost to UC-Irvine, but two of their three leading scorers weren't available. Bronny James didn't make his debut until December 10. USC's two leading scorers have each missed the past three games, all of which resulted in losses. No Trojan who sees more than 20 minutes per night has played in every USC game this season.

Now, injuries sound like the easy answer here, but even when USC's roster has been complete, or nearly so, the Trojans have struggled. USC has played seven games with its entire roster available and is just 3-4, with one of the wins coming against Alabama State. Filter Bart Torvik's rankings to include only that month of the season and USC performed like the 107th-best team in the nation in that period. Not exactly great evidence for injuries being the issue.

The Trojans are endlessly careless with the ball and therefore have the second-worst offense in the Pac-12. USC comes up empty on 20% of its possessions, with 12.5% leading to a steal and a live-ball turnover, so getting into any kind of offensive rhythm seems impossible at times.

The injury reports in the lead up to this game will be critical. USC has played three straight games without its top two scorers. Doing so for a fourth straight time, against the rival Bruins, makes laying points as the favorite a dire situation. Even if just one of Collier or Ellis is sidelined, I'd lean toward UCLA as an underdog.

Frankly, there's not much to like about this game. Your time and wager are better spent on one of the other 151 college hoops games being played Saturday.

Pick: Lean UCLA +5.5