VCU vs Saint Louis Odds, Pick: Target This A-10 Total

Friday Night Atlantic 10 basketball brings plenty of excitement on a typically lean night for college basketball games.

The last-place Saint Louis Billikens will have a chance to play spoiler against the VCU Rams, who could creep into the bubble conversation very soon.

The coach and scheme may have changed, but what didn’t change is VCU’s defensive dominance. The Rams ranks 35th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

While they don’t force a ton of turnovers, they play a very steady defensive style. Opponents only have an effective field goal percentage of 44% (fourth nationally) and 3-point percentage of 28% (eighth nationally). It’s not Havoc style, but forcing tough shots if just as effective as dominating the turnover battle.

I still believe in VCU’s offensive upside now that the team has its full weapons arsenal unlocked. Sean Bairstow missed the first six weeks of the season and Joe Bamisile missed the first half of the season. Both have averaged over 10 points per game since returning and add a different offensive dimension. Bairstow helps out Max Shulga as a fellow ball-handler. The 6-foot-8 Bairstow gets into the mid-range/paint area and can make plays with the ball.

Moreover, VCU’s offense relies on 3-point shooting, with the Rams attempting triples on 43% of shots. That’s not surprising based on Ryan Odom’s coaching philosophy from his days at UMBC and Utah State. The Rams shoot over 35% from deep, led by Shulga (40%), Kuany Kuany (42%) and Jason Nelson (37%).

We’re likely seeing the final days of the Travis Ford era at Saint Louis. I mean, who would’ve seen the program collapsing to this degree? Saint Louis is the worst team in the Atlantic 10 in KenPom and in the standings.

Saint Louis’s biggest culprit for its struggles is defense, particularly defending the perimeter. The Billikens' opponents attempt triples on 42% of possessions and shoot 34% from downtown. Pairing that with the team’s horrid 312th defensive efficiency ranking shows just how much the defense struggles.

However, the lights aren’t totally dim in Chaifetz Arena. Guard Sincere Parker scored 33 points in Saint Louis' second conference win over La Salle (in 18 minutes) and 34 points against St. Joe’s the following game (in 27 minutes). Parker is filling up the score sheet right now and VCU will need a plan for stopping the dominant scorer. Saint Louis' offense as a whole isn't too bad, ranking 120th in offensive efficiency.

With the Billikens' defensive hardships, they'll need a strong shooting performance from Parker and veteran leader Gibson Jimerson. The two could explode for a big scoring night with ease. You can't expect another 30-point game from Parker, but he's averaging 15 points per game this season and is more than capable of scoring in bunches.

Only one VCU game in the past eight games went over 144 points, a 146-point total against Saint Louis in the first meeting. I can’t see VCU’s inconsistent offense scoring in the 80-point range again, despite Saint Louis' terrible defense. The Rams scored 85 points against the Billikens, and the game barely scrapped past the 144-point marker.

No shocker this ended up as the line, but I have to grab the under here.

Pick: Under 144 (Play to 143)