College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for San Diego State vs. Michigan: Where Does the Value Lie?

College Basketball Odds, Picks, Predictions for San Diego State vs. Michigan: Where Does the Value Lie? article feature image

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San Diego State vs. Michigan Odds

Saturday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
San Diego State Odds
-105o / -115u
Michigan Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute college basketball odds here.

The Michigan Wolverines look lost this season. North Carolina demolished them in Chapel Hill on Wednesday night and Juwan Howard’s team does not even look remotely similar to 2020-21.

This team beat Buffalo to open the year but has dropped games against any noteworthy competition: Seton Hall, Arizona and UNC. Those are good teams, yes, but the average margin of loss in those three games was 13.3 points. This is concerning.

San Diego State Aztecs

San Diego State has its own issues. The Aztecs have injuries to both Lamont Butler and Adam Seiko. Butler is their third-leading scorer and Seiko is a solid backup role player.

They are 5-2, but have had similar trouble to Michigan with tougher teams. Their two losses were to USC and BYU, where they manufactured a combined 103 points.

Both teams look lost when playing solid competition. Both of these teams should be better than they are and no one should trust these offenses to put together a show. The under deserves a look here, as it is a bit too high for these struggling teams.

San Diego State is now a fixture in West Coast college basketball, but it does not have much under its collective belt thus far this season. The Aztecs only have two players averaging at least 10 points per game and their team averages 63.9 points per game.

Do not expect this to change against a Michigan team out for blood after being embarrassed by UNC.

The Aztecs’ strength resides in their defense. Per KenPom, they have the third-best defensive efficiency in all of college hoops. They hold opponents to a paltry 22.8% from 3-point land, and Michigan only shoots 29.4% from downtown this year.

Sure, Michigan does not shoot many outside shots, but this basically eliminates this element for SDSU to even consider guarding.

SDSU also restricts 2-point shooting, as well, allowing only a 44.5% field goal percentage inside the arc. They are not tall by any means, but Nathan Mensah should be able to hold his own matching up with Hunter Dickinson or Moussa Diabate.

There is a mismatch if both are on the floor, but the Aztecs already were going to lose the rebounding battle with the Wolverines. If they can somewhat mitigate this risk, they can keep this game tight and restrict Michigan’s chances at second shots on possessions.

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Michigan Wolverines

Michigan will probably come out firing on all cylinders in this one. There is no way Howard will take the loss to UNC lightly.

Now, Michigan will win the rebounding category easily. The Wolverines' power is in their posts and they have the depth to back it up if someone is in foul trouble. The under will be in jeopardy if Michigan is easily attaining second chances off the glass. Otherwise, this should be in play.

Michigan has a sturdy defense, too. The Wolverines will not force many turnovers, but they will not foul often. Since they run at an equally slow tempo on both sides of the ball, they will control the pace of the game.

Per KenPom, their adjusted tempo ranks 288th in the NCAA, and SDSU’s is 305th. This says Michigan will ensure the Aztecs utilize their entire shot clock and Michigan will haul in the board from their bigs after only one shot.

San Diego State vs. Michigan Betting Pick

Both of these teams have scrappy defenses and frankly, play at a pretty boring tempo.

Michigan will out-rebound San Diego State, but not enough where it should impact the total.

Given how both teams are shooting sub-30% from 3-point range, there will not be many outside shots falling. Take the under.

Pick: Under 126.5 (Play to 124)

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Doug Ziefel
Jul 22, 2024 UTC