San Diego State vs. Stanford Odds, Picks: Will Aztecs Earn Road Win?
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Bradley (San Diego State)
San Diego State vs. Stanford Odds
|San Diego State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The Aztecs come into the season with high expectations as they were listed as the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West, and are coming off back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances.
Meanwhile, Stanford hasn’t made the NCAA tournament in any of Jerod Haase’s six seasons as head coach, and this sets up to be a make-or-break season for him.
Both teams are coming off of relatively underwhelming performances. Stanford trailed by multiple possessions for almost the entire game against Wisconsin, and San Diego State needed a late comeback to beat BYU in a game that it was favored by 9 1/2 points in.
San Diego State’s calling card is defense. The Aztecs allowing 87.7 points per 100 possessions through two games this season and were second in all of college basketball in defensive efficiency last year.
The defense is anchored in the middle by reigning Mountain West DPOY Nathan Mensah, and they have Lamont Butler and Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell on the perimeter, who each ranked top-30 in STL% last season.
In the opener against Cal State Fullerton, the Aztecs forced 18 turnovers and followed up that against BYU by forcing 20 turnovers.
While the defense has always been there, it's the offense that the Aztecs have routinely struggled with over the last couple of seasons.
The above mentioned Trammell and TCU transfer Jaedon LeDee have helped out tremendously early in this season. Trammell dropped 18 against Fullerton and 21 against BYU, while LeDee had 23 against the Cougars.
The duo has been crucial so far with the early struggles of Matt Bradley, who led the team in scoring last season.
The Aztecs have scored 80 or more points in both games to open the season. They only accomplished that feat once last year.
The Cardinal are off to a 1-1 start after handling Pacific and losing at American Family Field to Wisconsin. Spencer Jones and Harrison Ingram lead the way for Stanford, along with Davidson transfer Michael Jones.
The transfer of Jones has added a much-needed knockdown shooter to the Cardinal's starting lineup.
Their biggest advantage tends to be their size, as they rank 13th in the country in average height.
Additionally, they are a strong rebounding team, finishing last season 23rd in offensive rebound percentage and 19th in defensive rebounding percentage.
The same issues Stanford had last season have appeared to start this season.
The Cardinal committed 32 combined turnovers in the first two games and ranked 349th in turnover rate last season.
San Diego State vs. Stanford Betting Pick
This game should be tight — as evidenced by the 4.5-point spread. The Cardinal are in a bounce-back spot at home and are due for some shooting regression.
However, I think the turnover issues will be too steep for Stanford to overcome.
11 of the turnovers Stanford committed against Wisconsin were via steals. And in SDSU's last game against BYU, it forced 16 steals. Allowing runouts and transition opportunities against a team that struggles with offense and is lockdown on defense could become problematic for Stanford.
Couple that with some late playmaking from Bradley and Trammell, and I think the Aztecs will get the road win and cover the number.