College Basketball Odds, Picks for Virginia Tech vs. Florida State: 2 Bets to Make for ACC Affair
Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Cattoor (VT)
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Odds
|Virginia Tech Odds|
-105o / -115u
|Florida State Odds|
-105o / -115u
If you ever get the “privilege” of meeting any of my ex-girlfriends, they will all describe me the same way: funny, caring, handsome and stubborn. Emphasis on handsome.
Keying in on the word stubborn, though, I just couldn’t quit on my ACC dark-horse Hokies after writing about them in multiple guides, bi-weekly futures pieces and numerous tweets.
After three straight losses to Boston College, North Carolina and Miami (FL), I think it’s time for me to let the Hokies go.
If you love something, set it free. If it loves you, then it will come back to you. In this case, hopefully the Hokies come back with a +5000 ACC winning ticket.
Florida State, on the other hand, is a team I have not given enough attention too. Alas, like the running theme for every ACC team this year not named Duke, it’s one step forward and two steps back for the Seminoles after embarrassingly losing to Georgia Tech in their last time out.
Can Florida State find its stride in a much-needed redemption spot? Or will Virginia Tech finally live up to its expectations?
Let’s find out.
Coming off of a three-game skid, you would be surprised to find out that KenPom still has the Hokies as the fourth-best team in the ACC in AdjEM.
“Just when I thought I was out, they bring me back.”
Virginia Tech is still very well balanced — ranking 40th in AdjO and 65th in AdjD — but its problems remain the same. The Hokies can’t put together a complete game on both ends.
In their last game out, the offense was clicking and shots were dropping. They shot 80% from the charity stripe, 50% from 3 and 50% from the field.
The problem? They couldn’t stop Miami at all. That’s a tough task for anyone — as Miami’s offense is spectacular — but allowing 61% from 3 is unacceptable.
The Hokies won’t have to worry about above-average shooting going against Florida State, as the Noles are one of the worst shooting units in the ACC.
If Virginia Tech can find its scoring again, then it should cruise through this matchup.
The Hokies are a well-balanced scoring squad, with eight players contributing meaningful minutes and four of them scoring in double digits. They are led by forward Keve Aluma, who averages 15.8 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game.
Look for Virginia Tech to go into a zone and allow nothing inside, daring the Seminoles to beat it from deep. That’s a tough ask for Florida State.
After beating Duke and being 50% of the reason for one of my worst betting nights in a long time on Jan. 18, Florida State has crashed back to earth after an embarrassing loss to Georgia Tech.
The offense was a jumbled mess against the Yellow Jackets, coughing up 17 turnovers. For a team that can’t shoot very well, every possession means more to the Seminoles, and turnovers killed it.
Florida State ended up shooting 40.7% from the field. That’s good, not great, but it should have been better against a Yellow Jackets team that is 105th in AdjD.
Against a zone, inside looks were limited and shots were heavily contested. For a poor shooting team, it came as no surprise that Florida State struggled to put up points.
It may face the same fate going against Virginia Tech.
The Noles’ scoring production has been dipping, as Florida State now ranks 99th in AdjO, per KenPom.
The Seminoles play very deep down the bench, giving 10 players meaningful minutes. However, only three score in double figures.
A lack of disparity and shooting has been the Achilles heel for FSU all season long, and I don’t see it changing much this time out.
Led by Caleb Mills — who averages 13.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game — the Seminoles will once again need to rely on his production if they want to keep scoring pace.
If the Seminoles’ defense can turn defense into offense, then it will have a fighting chance.
Virginia Tech vs. Florida State Betting Pick
Well, Virginia Tech, prove it to me because I just can’t quit on you just yet.
This is a stylistic nightmare for Florida State. This is a game that it has too many things going against it.
Florida State is horrific at shooting and will struggle to find quality looks against the Hokies’ zone.
Virginia Tech also plays at a snail’s pace, ranking 342nd in AdjT, per KenPom.
Less possessions means more emphasis on shot selection.
While Florida State relies on its lengthy and pesky defense, Virginia Tech does an exceptional job at facilitating until it gets the best shot possible. The Hokies rank first in the ACC in 3-point percentage and fourth in field goal percentage.
I will be playing Virginia Tech and sprinkling on the under. This is a get-right game for the Hokies that will give me all the confidence in them that I have lost over the past few weeks.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1.5 | Under 132.5
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