College Basketball Odds & Picks: Three Man Weave’s Top 3 Bets for Friday (December 10)
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: William Douglas (21) of the Prairie View A&M Panthers.
The weekend is here, so what’s the best way to kick it off? By betting some college hoops before a massive Saturday slate.
Cox has his eye on plenty of mid-major action, including everything from High Point vs. South Carolina State and IUPUI vs. Tennessee State at 7 p.m. ET to Prairie View A&M vs. Boise State at 9 p.m. ET.
So, be sure to check out all three of Cox’s bets for Friday. Then, come back tomorrow because we’ll have even more betting action to carry you through the day.
Friday College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Three Man Weave is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
South Carolina State vs. High Point
An extra total is as niche as it gets, but there’s a few strong angles for the over in this neutral-site showcase between High Point and South Carolina State.
KenPom, the beacon for which the totals market is tethered to, projects a 71-possession game tonight, and thus, a 140-point combined score.
The oddsmakers tipped their hand by opening the total 2.5 points higher at 142.5 — said differently, it seems as if they’re shielding themselves from impending money on the over.
Yes, that’s potentially 2-3 points of precious value down the drain. However, this matchup has the potential to soar over the number. Nitpicking over a point or two, especially at such a high number, is a distraction.
Since Tubby Smith took command of the wheel at High Point — yes, the same Tubby Smith from Kentucky — the Panthers have been a “pace taker,” willingly adapting to the speed of their opponent.
Sometimes, they will settle into a half-court affair, bolted down by Tubby’s throwback methodical motion offense. Other times, Tubby will dial up extended defensive pressure, luring their opponent into a frenetic track meet.
The latter is likely to manifest tonight against Tony Madlock’s run-and-gun Bulldogs. SCSU comes into tonight’s tilt with the nation’s 19th-fastest tempo, per KenPom.
Not only is SCSU dictating the tempo offensively, but it’s also allowing opponents to get quick shots in transition the other way, too. HPU isn’t a NASCAR-paced offense but the Panthers will pounce on opportunities as they arise, and those chances should be in abundance tonight.
Part of this over edge is correlated with my side lean, which tilts heavily toward the favorite. South Carolina State has been surprisingly competitive in a few spots this year, but I believe HPU is criminally undervalued in the betting markets.
If the Panthers can assert their dominance early and hold a sizable lead, this game is bound to open up in the second half. This game may not be a shootout from the jump but the floodgates should swing open by the second stanza.
Pick: Over 142.5
IUPUI vs. Tennessee State
Betting on one of the 10 worst teams in America isn’t fun. IUPUI is sitting in the solitary chamber of KenPom’s overall rankings, checking in at 349th overall. Additionally, the Jaguars have covered just twice in their first seven games.
But we’re not in the business of having fun. We’re in the business of profitable ventures.
Against a Tennessee State club in the midst of a tailspin, the Jaguars, as bad as they’ve been, are a live dog tonight in Nashville.
TSU head coach Penny Collins assembled an impressive roster this summer, seducing many into believing Tennessee State could have a breakthrough campaign. Unfortunately, the talent has not gelled and chemistry fissures are starting to break out.
Most recently, prized three-star prospect Hercy Miller left the team, a precarious omen of potential behind-the-scenes locker room riffs — granted, this is all speculative and could be completely unrelated to a broader lack of cohesion. But, usually, where there’s smoke, there’s fire. These types of intangible dynamics are critical to detect, as the oddsmakers rarely price that into the number.
IUPUI is coming off two blowout conference losses against Detroit and Oakland, both of which boast categorically superior talent than Tennessee State.
The Jaguars haven’t played a team in its weight class since the mid-November MTE in San Antonio. There, IUPUI was narrowly defeated by a margin of six and three points to Texas A&M Corpus Christi and UTSA, respectively.
To date, Tennessee State has done nothing to prove it’s a notch above either TAMCC or UTSA, which makes any number at seven or higher all the more appetizing.
The Jaguars’ ball security is a dicey proposition against TSU’s unpredictable pressure, but the Jags won’t be duped into an open court free-for-all.
Expect an ugly, low-scoring rock fight that’s unlikely to see either side extend a lead by more than five points in either direction.
Pick: IUPUI +8
Prairie View A&M vs. Boise State
Byron Smith and his battle-tested Panthers are back on the road again as they head to the land of potatoes to take on Boise State at Taco Bell Arena.
Like a myriad of other SWAC, MEAC and Southland low majors, PVAMU has been a thorn in the side of high majors in the nonconference portion of the schedule. It’s yet to notch an outright win, but a brutal schedule has played a hand in Prairie View’s 0-8 start.
PVAMU is 4-4 against the number over those eight games, but there’s a clear pattern in the Panthers’ results: their subpar efforts have fallen squarely in impossible scheduling spots.
Texas Tech dismantled PVAMU a day after the Panthers played at Oklahoma, a rare back-to-back in college basketball.
Immediately after, PVAMU flew back to the West Coast — only a week removed from their season opening trip to the Bay Area — to take on Grand Canyon less than 48 hours later. Predictably, Prairie View ran out of steam and the Lopes took the Panthers to the woodshed.
Removing those Texas Tech and Grand Canyon blowouts from Prairie View’s resume, Michigan is the only team to handily put it on the Panthers this season. Smith is one of the savviest coaches in the low-major ethos and boasts a roster with tranches of speed and athleticism.
Granted, that edge will be largely negated by an athletic Boise opponent tonight, but the Panthers’ motor runs as hot as any team in America. They come at you with waves of pressure, as Smith often goes deep into his bench to wear down the opposition.
The beauty of tonight’s spot is that there’s virtually zero risk of jet lag for the visiting Panthers. They haven’t played since Nov. 30, a refreshing and reinvigorating week-and-a-half break in the wake of a schedule gauntlet.
The only other time this season PVAMU had this much time between games was Nov. 27 at Loyola Marymount — then, the Panthers came just three points shy of notching an outright win over the host Lions in Los Angeles.
Boise is cut above LMU, but the gap is not sizable enough to justify a two-touchdown spread.
Prairie View is the ultimate cockroach, especially when rested and rejuvenated, and the Broncos will be hard pressed to squash Smith’s squad in emphatic fashion tonight.