In what surely projects to be one of the most closely-contested matchups of the entire first round, Mark Pope’s Kentucky squad has drawn the 7-seed in the Midwest Region.
Despite not winning the WCC Tournament, Santa Clara’s resume was sufficient for the committee, as the 11th-seeded Broncos look to pull off an upset over blue-blood Kentucky for a chance to advance to the second round.
Here's my college basketball parlay for Kentucky vs Santa Clara on Friday, March 20.
College Basketball Parlay for Kentucky vs Santa Clara
- Santa Clara Alt Spread +5.5
- Denzel Aberdeen Over 1.5 Threes Made
Parlay Odds: +190 (DraftKings)
Remember, parlays are "long shots" for a reason, so bet responsibly.
Kentucky vs Santa Clara Parlay Picks
Leg 1: Santa Clara Alt Spread +5.5
It's been a whirlwind of a season for Kentucky, as the Wildcats suffered several injuries down the stretch and ultimately finished with a 21-13 overall record.
For a program that's been victim to several early upsets over the past decade, Pope is certainly not overlooking this Santa Clara bunch ahead.
Kentucky has gone 2-3 over its last five contests, and I really worry about Pope’s offense finding efficient shots in the lane against a Santa Clara frontcourt that features 7-foot-1 center Bukky Oboye, who's been an exceptional rim-protector all season long.
If the Cats are to evade another first-round upset, their star senior guard Otega Oweh will need to have a monster performance.
While Oweh is undoubtedly a superstar, he's been relatively inconsistent in converting from beyond the arc, which really concerns me.
If Oweh, Denzel Aberdeen and the other Wildcats guards are missing from 3-point land early in Friday’s contest, Kentucky could be in some serious trouble trying to capitalize closer to the basket. I believe that 3-point shooting prowess will be a big factor for the Wildcats.
Even Gonzaga’s Graham Ike — one of the best forwards in all of college basketball — struggled in the Bulldogs’ last matchup with Santa Clara just 10 days ago. Though the Zags prevailed, Ike was held to 15 points and just four rebounds in 40 minutes of play.
While I don't think Santa Clara has the talent to take down Iowa State in the second round, I have high hopes for the Broncos ahead of their first-round matchup with Kentucky, even placing a bet on them earlier this week, catching 4.5 points.
Leg 2: Denzel Aberdeen Over 1.5 Threes Made
If you tuned in to Thursday’s SGP segment, I touched on the significance of pairing the side you favor with a player prop from the opposing roster, which maximizes value through a negative-correlation approach.
In Friday’s contest, I'll be looking to do the same by playing Santa Clara at an alternate number of 5.5 paired with Kentucky guard Denzel Aberdeen to capitalize at least twice from beyond the arc. Make 3s is something I feel the Wildcats must do to prevail in the first round, especially given Bukky’s interior presence.
After four quiet games in that category, Aberdeen bounced back with two 3-pointers against the Gators and has gone over this 1.5 line in five of his last 10 contests. Here's our Action trends showing this:
