In our first piece of content for the Action Network college basketball vertical, our proprietary model will help focus in and find edges for game totals to bring you our college basketball best bets.
With that in mind, here's our college basketball picks and two total bets for Saturday, January 10.
You can find all of our picks daily in the free Action Network app:
Driven by a combination of high-efficiency offense and Notre Dame's significant home-court scoring surge, this is a nice spot to bet the over.
Both teams operate at a similar pace and maximize their possessions, leading to consistent average game totals of 144 for Clemson and 141 for Notre Dame.
This offensive environment is further amplified at Purcell Pavilion, where Notre Dame’s scoring average jumps from 74 points per game across all outings to a robust 82 points per night at home.
Our projection makes this total 138 points, leaving nearly a six-point edge above the current line.
Both teams feature dangerous perimeter threats, though they'll have to contend with top-tier defensive units.
Notre Dame is particularly lethal from deep, shooting 37% as a team. Clemson presents a more balanced attack, shooting 33% overall from the field.
Defensively, this is a "strength-vs-strength" matchup: Clemson boasts the top 3-point defense in the ACC (28%), while Notre Dame is nearly as stingy (31%).
For the total to go over, the Irish will rely on their home-court shooting rhythm to crack Clemson’s perimeter shell, while the Tigers will likely lean on their 55% 2-point efficiency if the outside shots are contested.
Pick: Over 132.5
Our projection in this SEC affair is centered on the premise that Texas will struggle to reach an 80-point ceiling, especially against a Crimson Tide defense that's significantly more disciplined at home.
The Tide are only allowing 76 points a night at Coleman Coliseum, compared to their 82 point-per-game season average.
While Alabama is expected to maintain its high-octane 90-point scoring pace, the game total should stay well below the 179.5 line if Alabama can effectively dictate the flow and limit Texas to 70 or fewer possessions.
This bearish outlook is supported by consensus data from major analytics sites like KenPom, Bart Torvik and Evan Miya, which all project a total of 173 points or less.
With our own projection sitting even lower (170), the current line appears overinflated, offering nearly 10 points of value for the under.
Pick: Under 179.5
