Power-conference tournaments are officially underway, and while games are tipping off throughout the day, the action is set to ratchet up after dark
Jim Root of Three Man Weave highlighted his three best bets for Wednesday's slate, including picks for Xavier vs. Marquette, Rutgers vs. Minnesota, and Wake Forest vs. Clemson.
Let's dive into Root's college basketball picks and NCAAB best bets for the games on Wednesday, March 11.
College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Jim Root of Three Man Weave is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Xavier vs. Marquette
For most of the season, the Big East beyond UConn, St. John’s, and Villanova has been awful. Barring a shocking bid stealer, the league is essentially a lock to get only three NCAA Tournament bids.
However, since Feb. 1, another team grades out as a top 50 squad per Bart Torvik: the Marquette Golden Eagles, who rank 42nd in that span. They were a young team that did not use the transfer portal, instead relying on internal development.
Plus, they dismissed starting wing Zaide Lowery in mid-December and lost point guard Sean Jones to injury just before the new year. It makes sense that this team took time to mature and find proper roles.
Now led by freshman phenom Nigel James, everything has fallen into place. Chase Ross and Royce Parham slot in perfectly as complementary options, and another rookie, Adrien Stevens, has emerged as a crucial piece late in the year. The season-ending win over UConn affirmed the Golden Eagles’ impressive trajectory.
The added wrinkle here is the status of Xavier forward Tre Carroll, the Big East’s leading scorer. The skilled southpaw is a matchup nightmare, but he missed the regular season finale with a hip injury suffered in the penultimate game and could be out or limited in this one. He has the best Net Rating on the team (+11.6 points per 100 possessions), per CBB Analytics, and if he is absent, the Musketeers could struggle against the surging Golden Eagles.
This spread is higher than analytical projections, but given Marquette’s current form and the murky Carroll injury, I am still willing to lay up to -5.
Pick: Marquette -4 | Play to -5
Rutgers vs. Minnesota
The Big Ten pillow fight continues today, and major credit goes to Rutgers for somehow escaping the bottom four in the league and avoiding the Tuesday slate. The Scarlet Knights now battle the Golden Gophers in a colorful Big Ten matchup for the right to play UCLA on Thursday night.
By far the biggest reason for this wager is my expectation for the pace. Due to a terrible season-long rash of injuries, Minnesota’s rotation is down to bare bones: the Gophers are essentially playing five players, with freshman Kai Shinholster providing 10ish minutes off the bench.
The Gophers have had that rotation for seven games now. Only one game – against hyper-talented, transition-heavy Michigan – exceeded 61 possessions. They played Rutgers in this stretch, and the game had 59 possessions, well below the KenPom projection of 63 for this game. That meeting had 141 points, but it took a combined 22-of-44 shooting from 3 to get there.
For their part, the Scarlet Knights will not exactly force this to be a track meet. Their defense in particular forces long possessions, and Steve Pikiell’s team is generally willing to play at the pace of its opponent.
Efficiency is the lone concern here. Rutgers struggles badly defensively, and Minnesota’s intricate cutting system can generate quality looks. Fortunately, as mentioned, Rutgers saw this offense recently, which should help defensive positioning.
The previous meeting closed at 133.5. Given Minnesota’s recent pace trend and the venue (NBA arena in Chicago), I am happy to take a higher number and would bet it down to 133.
Pick: Under 135.5 | Play to 133
Wake Forest vs. Clemson
The late-night ACC contest features one team that needed overtime late last night (Wake Forest) and an elite defense that forces long, drawn-out possessions (Clemson). That immediately pushes me towards the under.
The rested Tigers are among the best teams in the country at forcing opponents to play their pace. No one gets out and runs against Brad Brownell’s disciplined system. Per Synergy, opponents get 11.8% of their possessions in transition, a 9th percentile frequency nationally. Opponents must execute in the half court.
The first meeting was not encouraging for this angle: it had 162 points in an 85-77 Wake Forest win at home. Both teams shot 60% of better from inside the arc. The pace (67 possessions) was solid, though, and that game turned into a bit of a foul fest (each side took 24+ free throws). That was also during Clemson’s disappointing late-season swoon, when opponents caught fire from 3: Wake shot 45.5% in that game.
With more familiarity and in a postseason setting, I expect more tame efficiency – especially inside the arc – in the rematch. Clemson excels at forcing efficiency (92nd percentile in frequency) while being elite at defending it (98th percentile in efficiency). That should frustrate the Deacons, who, even with point guard Nate Calmese back from injury, vastly prefer to play a free-flowing style out of handoffs and ball screens.
Clemson’s scheme is the biggest reason for this bet. If Wake’s legs are a little shaky after an overtime game last night, even better. I would bet this one down to 138.
Pick: Under 140.5 |Play to 138
