Unbelievably, February is right around the corner and the college hardwood action is heating up. We're now about halfway through league play for most Division I programs, and many teams are starting to position themselves within their respective conference races.
Scheduling and situational spots become increasingly more important as the rigors of conference play start to wear on these teams.
I'll be writing a fun article weekly pertaining to scheduling and situational spots we'll see in the days ahead. These spots will give us betting opportunities, which I'll outline below. So, here's college basketball predictions, including seven NCAAB situational spots to target this week.
Michigan State vs. Rutgers
I believe this is a bad situational spot for Michigan State.
The Spartans have started to assert their dominance on the defensive end in recent games, and there's no doubt they're starting to shape into a serious national title contender.
However, Michigan State is coming off a West Coast swing that consisted of wins against Washington and Oregon. It followed that up with a dominating 43-point home win against Maryland on Saturday.
Now Sparty goes back on the road to Rutgers, losers of four out of its last five games. With Michigan looming on Friday, I wouldn’t put it past Michigan State to be peeking ahead to the Wolverines, as opposed to being fully locked in against the Scarlet Knights.
I'm not trying to suggest that Rutgers could or should win this game outright, but catching this many points as a home 'dog — with Michigan State possibly peaking ahead — could be intriguing, especially with some added line value expected (the result of four straight Michigan State blowout wins).
This is a gross bet, but I'll look the way of the Scarlet Knights for an against-the-spread side play.
Pick: Rutgers ATS
Houston vs. TCU
Houston is coming off its first conference loss of the season on Saturday, a four-point defeat at the hands of Texas Tech.
The Cougars had chances to seize control of the game — one you could feel the gravitas with every possession — but they could never do so. Kingston Flemings went off for 42 points and six assists in what was an Eight Eight-type of atmosphere.
Looking forward, the task for Kelvin Sampson is getting his guys prepared for another tough road environment, especially in a spot where Houston has lost in recent history.
This is where I want to buy Houston, with a projected spread of five or so.
The defense has struggled in the last two games, giving up 73 points against Arizona State and 90 against Texas Tech. Those performances aren't going to sit well with Sampson, and I expect the Cougars' defense to step up in this one in a big way.
Since the start of 2024, following a loss, Houston is 8-1 straight up with seven double-digit wins. The defense is allowing 55.6 points per game under these conditions.
The Coogs are built with a tough, relentless defense, something Sampson might need to remind these guys about this week.
If Houston is indeed laying five or so, this is an excellent spot to believe it can bounce back in a big way, even on the road. This is still an elite basketball team, one I believe is capable of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.
I'll look to back Houston laying a small number.
Pick: Houston ATS
Hampton vs. Drexel
Drexel has been a dead-nut under team the last three weeks or so, and the Dragons have the top-rated defense in CAA play.
The last game Drexel played saw it hold a 51-34 lead with 10 minutes left against Northeastern before things got weird. There were 76 points scored in the final 10 minutes, with 50 scored in the last five.
The game was trending hard to the under for a good chunk of time, so I don’t want to throw out the traditional Drexel game flow because of one fluky 10-minute stretch.
Hampton is also an under team in CAA play, so I think this is a good spot to play the under between these two teams.
Hampton and Drexel are the 12th- and 13th-slowest teams in CAA play, per KenPom. Neither offense shoots the ball particularly well, and both defenses have played their best basketball since entering the conference portions of their respective schedules.
I can see a slower-paced grinder here between these two on Thursday night, one where I'm seeking to bet the under.
Pick: Under
Penn vs. Cornell
The Ivy League is the only conference at the Division I level that routinely schedules back-to-back games, as the Ancient Eight schools will now play Friday/Saturday matchups regularly from here on out.
Penn has a brutal travel spot this week, as it plays Friday at Columbia (New York City) followed by a Saturday game in Ithaca. The Quakers' first season under head coach Fran McCaffery hasn't gone without its fair share of ups and downs, but it's safe to say this isn't a strong Ivy League contender in 2025-26.
This specific trip is difficult as Penn has to take a four-hour bus ride from NYC to Ithaca, presumably the day of the game.
I would assume there will be a bit of travel-lag going from Philadelphia to NYC to Ithaca and having to play back-to-back games with it.
This is a spot where I want to back Cornell laying a short number.
The matchup should allow for Cornell to run, and the Big Red can hit the outside shot as well as any team in the Ivy League. I would expect Cornell to get out to an early lead and for Penn to be playing catch-up the entire second half.
Pick: Cornell ATS
NCAAB Situational Quick-Hitters
Purdue ATS (-4) @ Indiana
Tuesday, Jan. 27 | 9 p.m. ET
I'm not sure we should be giving Indiana this much respect lining up against a Purdue squad that's on the ropes a bit after losing back-to-back games. The Boilermakers really need to find the win column.
Plus, the Boilers were embarrassed in their last trip to Assembly Hall, so I would expect Matt Painter and his group to be wide-eyed and ready to go in this one.
Purdue has an elite offense and it's equipped with versatile big men who can generate scoring opportunities, giving it a variety of different looks.
The guard play has been excellent for most of the season, too.
Purdue is just too strong on the interior defensively, so I expect the Boilers to win and cover.
Fort Wayne ATS (+5.5) vs. Oakland
Wednesday, Jan. 28 | 7 p.m. ET
Oakland is fresh off a rivalry win on the road against Detroit Mercy on Saturday. This is a big rivalry known as the “Metro Series” and certainly one Oakland wanted to win.
The Golden Grizzlies now hit the road to Fort Wayne, a place they've traditionally struggled at in the past.
Oakland is a high variance team capable of scoring 100 or giving up 100 on any given night, but the situation would call for a small play on the Mastodons if they're catching five or more.
UNC Wilmington ATS (PK) @ Towson
Thursday, Jan. 29 | 9 p.m. ET
UNC Wilmington played a horrific eight-minute stretch on the road against William & Mary last week, falling behind 30-8 before battling back and giving itself a chance to win.
The trouble with completing the comeback started when Madison Durr and Christian May fouled out, and the Seahawks struggled to generate offense down the stretch.
Towson won't draw as many fouls in this matchup, and its shooters can't hit outside jumpers consistently, something William & Mary was able to do against the Seahawks.
I would expect UNC Wilmington to play exceptional basketball against the CAA's preseason favorite.
