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College basketball is back! A lot of the sports edge their way back in with a small slate of games, but this one roars in with 119 lined games on Monday.
I’ll be doing a weekly piece here for Action called Market Misreads. The goal will be to find value based on spots where teams are getting too much/too little credit or the market in general doesn’t appear to have a good read on the game for a particular reason.
Early in the season, these are more likely to be picks for games where a specific team has undergone some massive changes.
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Eastern Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
Who likes to go to the dentist? I would venture to guess that less than 1% of people actually enjoy going.
What does that have to do with college basketball, though? Well, Billy Donlon is the new coach of Eastern Michigan, and he's known for mixing up his defenses and making life tough on the opposing offense.
Oakland head coach Greg Kampe said:
“Playing against Billy’s teams has always been like going to the dentist’s office. Not exactly sure what is going to happen, but you know it is going to hurt.”
That’s high praise from a great offensive mind.
Eastern Michigan will look a whole lot different this season. The Eagles will play some aggressive man defense, and even mix in some zone sometimes. They'll definitely slow their pace down from what they played at under Stan Heath last year.
Coastal Carolina’s Justin Gray has consistently had teams in the bottom 50-75 in the nation in average possession length. The Chants have settled for too many long range jumpers in the last couple seasons, and I don’t think those will be very open against this Eastern Michigan team.
The market is pricing this total like it's the Eastern Michigan team from a year ago.
Pick: Under 142.5
Denver vs. Wisconsin
This isn't the Wisconsin Badgers from three or four years ago. Greg Gard made the decision last season to open things up and look for elite offensive efficiency rather than walking it up the court slowly each time.
It worked in a big way last season, as Wisconsin averaged 1.252 points per possession. The Badgers took great care of the basketball, and I think they’ll do that again this season.
There are some new faces for Wisconsin, but this is a talented team.
Nolan Winter should be able to overpower smaller teams like Denver on the inside.
Braeden Carrington is ready to step into a bigger role in the backcourt, too. Carrington scored 20 points in just 17 minutes in the Badgers' blowout win at Green Bay in an exhibition game a couple of weeks ago.
Owen Foxwell played the last five seasons in New Zealand, and he should be a leader for this Badgers backcourt.
What about Denver? The Pioneers have scorers, but they can’t guard anyone. Denver allowed 84 points per game last season, and it was bottom-10 in the nation in defensive efficiency.
The old Wisconsin teams would just slow things down and win ugly games against everyone. Wisconsin piled up the points last season, especially in the non-conference portion of the schedule. It scored 94 points or more in five of its first nine games.
I think the Badgers will score a bunch in this game, too, as they work in the new guys and keep pushing to the finish.
Pick: Wisconsin Team Total Over 91.5
Texas Southern vs. Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon has one of the best home court advantages in college basketball, and Texas Southern comes to town for this opening-night matchup.
Texas Southern should look a lot different this season under the leadership of Corey Lowery. Lowery has made it clear that he expects everyone on the floor to be working hard on the defensive end.
Lowery learned under Shaheen Holloway, and we know Holloway’s teams are as gritty and tough as you will find.
Texas Southern is absolutely outmanned in this one, but I do think it'll slow the pace down. Texas Southern was always a top-100 tempo team under Johnny Jones, but it's more likely to be bottom-100 in that area this season under Lowery.
Grand Canyon is a big favorite for good reason. The Antelopes have as good of a chance as anyone to win the Mountain West this season.
The Lopes were 23rd in defensive efficiency last season. Meanwhile, the defense is better than the offense in 2026-27, and the Antelopes should make it very hard on Texas Southern to get open looks.
The Lopes' frontcourt was their strength last season, and because of their size, they slowed their pace down some. They should get a lead and coast in this one.
Pick: Under 147
