The Elite Eight tips off tonight, and it will be Big Ten-dominated, with the conference making up half of the remaining field. Three of them will be action tonight with Iowa, Illinois, and Purdue taking the floor.
Keaton Wagler will look to help Illinois reach the Final Four for the first time in 21 years. Meanwhile, Braden Smith may struggle against a tough Arizona squad.
Let's dive into my NCAA Tournament player props and college basketball picks for the Elite 8 games on Saturday, March 28.
Elite 8 Player Props for Saturday, March 28
- Keaton Wagler Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-130, DraftKings)
- Braden Smith Under 8.5 Assists (-115 · bet365)
Iowa vs Illinois Player Prop Pick
For Iowa, Thursday's game against Nebraska was the third matchup of the season. It has another conference rematch tonight against Illinois. The Fighting Illini have won nine of the last 10 meetings, though it had true freshman Keaton Wagler for just the last meeting. Wagler had 19 points, five rebounds, and four assists in the last meeting, a 75-69 Illinois victory.
It was what we have come to expect from him as he is averaging 17.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.3 assists for the season. On Thursday, I just backed him for rebounds and assists, as I did not anticipate a ton of scoring against Houston. That turned out to be the case as Illinois won 65-55 to advance to the Elite Eight.
Wagler smashed his RA line with 12 rebounds and three assists, but he chipped in 13 points as well. With 28 PRA on Thursday, Wagler has cleared 26 or more in 13 of his last 20 games while averaging 29.1 per game.
While Iowa plays at a slow pace, its defense is not nearly as formidable as Houston's. It ranks 282nd in two-point percentage defense and 251st in effective percentage defense. That should help Wagler in terms of scoring and racking up assists, and he already combined for 23 in the first meeting.
Wagler has also had at least four rebounds in seven of his last 10 games and is coming off his season-high. I like him to grab one more tonight, once again en route to 26 PRA in total.
Pick: Keaton Wagler Over 25.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists -130
Purdue vs Arizona Player Prop Pick
In Purdue's first-round victory over Queens, I faded Smith's assists despite the fact that he became the NCAA's all-time leader in assists. As expected, Purdue won handily, and Smith had eight assists in 32 minutes.
With eight, eight and five assists in his first three NCAA Tournament games, his line has come down tonight. However, I am going back to the well for different reasons.
Tonight, the Boilermakers will face an Arizona defense that ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency. With one of the nation's elite frontcourts led by Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas, the Wildcats have the size to limit Purdue big man Trey Kaufmann-Renn.
His points line is 17.5 tonight, and if he goes under, that will also affect Smith's assists.
Though it was with and against a different team, Smith had two assists in 36 minutes in his only career game against Arizona two seasons ago. This year's Wildcats allow just 12.2 assists per game.
On Thursday, they limited Arkansas to 13 assists despite the fact that they scored 88 points. Darius Acuff Jr. was limited to three assists and finished well below his 6.5 line. If Smith has a similar result, his assists under will cash for the fourth consecutive game.
Pick: Braden Smith Under 8.5 Assists -115
