Final Four Best Bets & Predictions for Saturday

There are just three college basketball games left, but two No. 1 seeds, a "Cinderella" No. 11 seed and an explosive, fast offense remain.

And to put the cherry on top, there's plenty of betting value on the board.

So, here's our Final Four best bets and odds, including our staff's four picks for Saturday's college basketball games on April 6.

Final Four Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

By John Feltman

KenPom projects this total at 151, so I’m not quite sure why the public loves the under so much.

Let’s face it — the Wolfpack have a daunting task at hand when it comes to containing two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey.

Wolfpack big man DJ Burns Jr. has captured America’s heart over the last couple of weeks, but he’s a defensive liability who makes me extremely concerned for his team. Matt Painter’s Boilermakers are going to consistently feed Edey inside, which will correlate to easy buckets or a plethora of trips to the foul line.

If the Wolfpack decide to play the foul game with Edey, he shoots roughly 71% at the charity stripe. While he’s not automatic, he’ll put a lot of extra points on the scoreboard with the clock stopped.

Many casual fans have the Elite Eight games ingrained in their minds, as they assume that neither team is capable of putting on an offensive showcase. However, both sides rank top-50 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and do a good job of protecting the basketball.

Numbers tend to be skewed at this time of the year, and I’m still not buying the Wolfpack’s defense. As much as I love Burns’ offensive game, his defensive woes inside should allow for plenty of easy buckets at the rim for Edey and Co.

You can also argue this will be the best 3-point shooting team the Pack have faced since North Carolina in the ACC Tournament final, as Purdue ranks top-five nationally in 3-point percentage.

There’s certainly some regression coming, but I don’t think Kevin Keatts’ team has the chops to contain the Boilermakers.

Meanwhile, Purdue’s defense still isn’t forcing turnovers, which is especially bad against a Wolfpack team that’s top-10 when it comes to protecting the basketball.

There are going to be a ton of ball screens and movements by NC State’s offense that force a ton of mismatches.

Nobody seems to have figured out how to stop Burns on the offensive end of the floor, and I’m sure a lot of attention will be focused on him. That should open up easy mid-range and 3-point attempts for stud point guard DJ Horne, so don’t be surprised to see the Wolfpack offense clicking throughout the contest.

Ultimately, I think the Boilermakers will be too much for the Wolfpack to handle, but I expect both of these offenses to empty the tank and for the game to go over the total.

Pick: Over 146.5 (Play to 148)

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By Patrick Strollo

This Final Four matchup will feature two of the most prolific offenses in the nation, and this penultimate round of the NCAA Tournament will be can’t-miss basketball.

It’s hard to bet against UConn, especially if you’re feeling gunshy like myself after backing the Illini last weekend and seeing the Huskies go on a bewildering 30-0 run in the second half. But I’m back up on my horse and ready to go against UConn again.

This Alabama team is all offense, all the time. As a result, the Crimson Tide rank first in the nation in scoring, averaging 90.6 points per game.

Normally, I spend a lot of time harping on the advanced stats, and I will get to that, but I think this is the key takeaway for the angle on this bet.

Alabama can flat-out score, and that’s what it’s going to do to keep this game close. Now, the Tide's defense is suspect at best, but I believe they can offset their own porous stop unit with heavy tempo.

Tempo is what Nate Oats’ offense has thrived on this season, and the pace of play discrepancy between these two teams should be the differentiator in this tilt. UConn ranks just 315th nationally in Adjusted Tempo with 64.9 possession per 40 minutes, whereas Alabama ranks 13th with 72.5 opportunities per game.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise since the general consensus is that UConn has already won the tournament, but the public is all over the Huskies. They've garnered 73% of the bets and 88% of the money as of Friday evening.

I know firsthand that UConn can destroy capital that opposes it, but I’m more than happy to fade the public sentiment here.

My model projects the fair value spread for this game at 10 points and presents what I consider to be pretty compelling value in favor of Alabama. The combination of high tempo and exceptional scoring ability is just too much to pass up here.

I recommend taking points in this contest. I think Alabama will be able to keep this close down the stretch and stay within single digits.

Lastly, for the plus-money bettors out there, a dusting on Alabama moneyline is something worth considering at +500 or better.

Pick: Alabama +11.5 (Play to +9.5)

By Matt Gannon

UConn has been nothing but dominant in its quest to repeat as national champions. The Huskies have faced little resistance to this point, which is exactly how they would’ve planned it.

On the other side, the Crimson Tide have been through ups and downs to reach this point.

While it’s clear that UConn has been the far more consistent team, I would prefer a team that's been through some adversity. No national title run is going to be flawless, and there will be a moment when UConn will face some real struggles. That could very well happen in this game against the Tide.

I mention all the time how volatile of a team Alabama is. While that’s 100% true and the Tide could lose to some horrific teams, that also means they have the ceiling to beat anyone in the nation.

Their shooting prowess and quality 3-point shots give them the ability to catch fire.

There’s no question UConn will have an advantage down low. While Alabama looked impressive against bigs like North Carolina’s Armando Bacot and Clemson’s PJ Hall, Donovan Clingan is a different beast.

Alabama head coach Nate Oats runs a rim-and-3 offense tremendously, and he'll surely deploy that this week with an emphasis on trifecta.

UConn will get what it wants inside, but Alabama will defend the perimeter well and shoot the ball at a high rate from the outside.

If the Tide have a plus shooting night, they could put the Huskies on upset alert.

Pick: Alabama +11.5 (Play to +9.5)

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By D.J. James

This is purely based on UConn’s 3-point defense.

The Huskies have crushed each team they’ve come across in the NCAA Tournament, but Alabama is one of the fastest-paced teams, and the Tide launch a ton of 3s.

UConn ranks 96th in Open-3 Rate on defense, while Alabama sits 19th in 3-point attempt rate and shoots over 37% from deep.

In addition, the pace could catch up to UConn at times, as Bama ranks within the top 10 in Adjusted Tempo.

Now, this Alabama defense is incredibly porous, so betting on the spread may not be the most reliable option. That said, the Crimson Tide could control the pace and score in garbage time if it comes down to it.

UConn also lacks on the defensive glass, while the Crimson Tide ranks top-25 in offensive rebounding rate. This is one area that could push Alabama over its team total.

Additionally, the Huskies and Tide both have a tendency to foul. While the stoppages could hurt each team’s rhythm, they also give teams more opportunities to put points on the board with the clock stopped.

UConn should win this game by a landslide because it can actually defend, but it should be higher-scoring.

Bet Alabama’s team total over 73.5, and play it to 75.

Pick: Alabama Team Total Over 73.5 (Play to 75)