Gonzaga vs San Francisco Pick: College Basketball Player Prop (March 11)

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We've already bet Hickman under 2.5 rebounds multiple times this year, and we're going back to the well.

Against good teams is an auto-under 2.5 rebound bet at anything close to even money. Against top-half teams, Hickman has stayed under 2.5 rebounds in 11 of 15 games (73.3%), whereas against bottom-half teams he's only stayed under in 6 of 15 (40%).

It's as simple as that: Books don't adjust enough because Gonzaga's conference schedule is so weak and it only really gets games against St. Mary's, Santa Clara and San Francisco.

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It should be obvious why Hickman's rebounding goes down against top-half teams. On average, those teams make more shots and are better at rebounding.

That's certainly the case for the Dons, who are 24th in effective field goal percentage nationally and 51st out of 362 Division-I teams in my schedule-adjusted rebounding percentage.

I'm projecting Hickman for 1.9 rebounds in a shade over 38 minutes and have him staying under around 70% of the time. Even a full 40-minute projection has him staying under 68% of the time, leading to a pretty monster edge when we need just 48.8% implied odds at +105.

I would also play this under at -105 over at DraftKings, but BetMGM has the best number.

Pick: Nolan Hickman Under 2.5 Rebounds (+105)