The Iowa Hawkeyes take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. EST on BTN.
Purdue is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 143 points.
Here’s my Iowa vs. Purdue prediction and college basketball picks for January 14, 2026.
Iowa vs Purdue Prediction
My Pick: Under 144.5 or Better
My Iowa vs Purdue best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Iowa vs. Purdue Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 143 -110o / -110u | -550 |
- Iowa vs Purdue spread: Purdue -9.5
- Iowa vs Purdue over/under: 143 points
- Iowa vs Purdue moneyline: Iowa +400, Purdue -550
Iowa vs Purdue College Basketball Betting Preview
Iowa Basketball
Iowa City is just the latest stop in the meteoric rise of Ben McCollum.
As recently as the spring of 2024, McCollum was the head coach of Division II Northwest Missouri State. Under two years later, he's leading a Big Ten program with eyes on an at-large bid this March.
Drake gave McCollum his first shot at the Division I level. He aced it, going 31-4 and earning a quick promotion from the Hawkeyes.
Certainly McCollum deserves tons of credit. He won four Division II national titles and hasn't skipped a beat when moving up.
But McCollum's rise and ascension have now been directly tied to Bennett Stirtz, who's joined McCollum every step of the way.
Stirtz played for McCollum at Northwest Missouri State, averaging 15 points per game as a sophomore. At Drake, he was even better as a junior. He led the nation in minutes played and the Missouri Valley Conference in points and steals, while being named the conference's Player of the Year.
Like McCollum, he hasn't slowed down in facing power-conference competition. Stirtz drops 17.6 points and 5.1 assists per game, the catalyst for a sharp Hawkeyes offense.
Iowa plays at a methodical pace, yet does so ultra-efficiently. Iowa only gets into transition offense on 11.6 of 100 possessions, per Hoop-Explorer, which ranks among the bottom 4% in the country.
When the Hawkeyes do run, it's for good reason. Iowa scores 1.56 points per possession in transition, the highest mark nationally.
A ton of that success comes from Stirtz, a floor general in his fourth year running McCollum's system who's adept at knowing when to push the ball or set-up half-court offense.
This is especially key for this Iowa team, which has a top-20 defense, built on its ability to force turnovers. The Hawkeyes rank sixth nationally in turnover rate and third in non-steal turnovers, per KenPom.
Opposing teams are coughing up the ball, leading Stirtz to call for an easy bucket or to slow the tempo and find a quality shot.
Purdue Basketball
Is it possible to be 14-1, ranked in the top five, have the most efficient offense in the country and also under the radar?
Somehow, that's been the case for Purdue this season.
The Boilermakers entered the season with massive expectations, due largely to the continuity in Matt Painter's program. Purdue ranks seventh nationally in minutes continuity, per KenPom, with three key tentpoles of the lineup back this season.
Braden Smith is a candidate for National Player of the Year and will spend the season breaking school, conference and national records. Fletcher Loyer continues to be one of the best shooters in the Big Ten, and Trey Kaufman-Renn is a major producer in the paint.
Maybe the continuity is also causing fatigue in the college basketball landscape.
There are still five undefeated teams, four of which play in power conferences, one of which beat the brakes off of Purdue in West Lafayette last month (Iowa State). That loss, in which the Cyclones shot 48% from deep and Purdue made just 22% from outside, really feels like an aberration.
While it may not be the first team talked about on an ESPN pregame show these days, Purdue is absolutely still a national title contender and a factor in the race for the Big Ten crown.
If there are long-term questions about Purdue, they stem from a lack of an offensive downhill attack. Purdue ranks 344th nationally in free-throw rate and 340th in KenPom's newest stat, average distance of 2-point shot.
This is a team built to shoot jump shots. Purdue shoots it great, so that's worked out to the tune of the top-ranked offense in the country, while leaving open the door for a cold day like the Iowa State loss.
Iowa vs. Purdue Betting Analysis
Iowa enters on a two-game losing streak.
While a win at Mackey Arena to stop that skid would be a big ask, I expect McCollum, Stirtz and crew to put up a fight here.
Iowa's best method to keep this one close is to force the game into a glacial pace.
Purdue isn't looking for a track meet, but Iowa wants this game to be a chess match in the half-court.
Unless either team gets red hot from long range, this game should be won by the first team to 70 points, if either reaches that mark.
My Pick: Under 144.5 or Better
