Iowa State vs Kansas Odds, Picks & Predictions | NCAAB Betting Guide
Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaren Holmes (Iowa State)
Iowa State vs Kansas Odds
|Iowa State Odds|
-115o / -105u
-115o / -105u
On Tuesday night, No. 14 Iowa State won its sixth straight game with a 84-50 drubbing of Texas Tech. It improved to 13-2 overall and 4-0 in Big 12 play, tied for first place in the conference. One of the teams Iowa State is tied with is Kansas and the Cyclones will visit Allen Fieldhouse to battle the Jayhawks on Saturday afternoon.
Kansas also got a win on Tuesday, but it got a fight from Oklahoma. The Jayhawks needed an 18-4 run to close the game and pull out a 79-75 victory. The win improved No. 2 Kansas to 15-1 on the year.
Kansas has dominated this series over the years. Head coach Bill Self is 35-10 against Iowa State since arriving in Lawrence. Kansas also swept the season series last year, but it only won by one in Lawrence. In this matchup, Kansas is an 8-point favorite.
Last season, defense sparked a 20-win turnaround in head coach T.J. Otzelberger’s first season. Iowa State has built on that season and is allowing just 57.7 points per game and ranks eighth nationally in scoring defense. The Cyclones are fifth in adjusted defensive efficiency and sixth in defensive rating.
One of the reasons Iowa State has been so good defensively is its ability to force turnovers. The Cyclones rank first in turnover percentage and fifth in steals percentage. Six Cyclones are averaging over one steal per game, led by Tamin Lipsey and Gabe Kalscheur, who are each averaging 1.9.
Lipsey has also done an excellent job orchestrating Iowa State’s offense as a freshman. He is averaging 6.9 points, 4.7 assists and just two turnovers per game.
Iowa State has gotten big contributions from a pair of St. Bonaventure transfers. Guard Jaren Holmes leads the team in scoring at 13.8 points per game to go along 3.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Center Osun Osunniyi is averaging 8.1 points and shooting 54.4% from the field. He has been effective in a timeshare with forward Robert Jones, who is averaging 7.3 points per game.
Kalscheur is averaging 11.8 points this season and 18 in the past four games as a starter. He had 25 points and made five threes against TexasTech. It was part of a season-high 12 threes for an Iowa State team that shoots 35% from three.
Forward Jalen Wilson has played himself into the discussion for National Player of the Year this season. The senior is averaging 20 points and 8.8 rebounds. He has been inefficient at 40.7% shooting from the field, but he’s getting to the line 5.6 times per game. Wilson is one of four Jayhawks averaging double digits.
Freshman guard Gradey Dick is averaging 14.3 points and shooting 47% from three. Guard Kevin McCullar is averaging 11 points and 7.3 rebounds. Forward KJ Adams is averaging 10.4 points and shooting 65% from the field. He is important on the defensive end as well, averaging over a block and steal per game.
Point guard DaJuan Harris is averaging 6.3 assists and just 1.8 turnovers per game. He is one of the best late-game decision makers in the country and a big reason why the Jayhawks average just 12 turnovers per game.
Kansas is 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency. It shoots the three ball at a 38% clip, which ranks 22nd nationally.
The Jayhawks are also 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency and holding opponents to 40% from the field and 30% from three. However, Kansas had an uncharacteristic performance against Oklahoma, allowing the Sooners to shoot 47% from the field.
Iowa State vs. Kansas Betting Pick
Getting a win at Kansas is always a tough proposition. The Jayhawks are on a 15-game home winning streak and are 9-0 at home this season. However, Kansas is just 7-9 against the spread this season.
Iowa State, on the other hand, is 10-5 ATS this season. Its defense should keep this game close. Iowa State is allowing 59.7 points per game in Big 12 play and held Kansas to 66 points per game in the two meetings last season.
The key to this matchup will be turning Jalen Wilson into a jump shooter and keeping him off the free throw line. He attempted 12 free throws against Oklahoma. Keeping him off the line will keep Iowa State’s big men out of foul trouble and allow the Cyclones to dictate tempo.
Speaking of, Iowa State is 296th in adjusted tempo. If it is successful in limiting possessions, there will be more value on the underdog in a game where scoring could be at a premium. Getting eight points, I’ll back the Cyclones in this spot.