The Kentucky Wildcats take on the LSU Tigers in Baton Rouge, LA. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Kentucky is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -200. The total is set at 153 points.
Here’s my Kentucky vs. LSU predictions and college basketball picks for January 14, 2026.
Kentucky vs LSU Prediction
My Pick: Kentucky -4.5
My Kentucky vs LSU best bet is on the Wildcats to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Kentucky vs. LSU Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 153 -110o / -110u | +165 |
- Kentucky vs LSU spread: Kentucky -4.5
- Kentucky vs LSU over/under: 153 points
- Kentucky vs LSU moneyline: Kentucky -200, LSU +165
Kentucky vs LSU College Basketball Betting Preview
Kentucky Basketball
Even though the Wildcats are going on the road, they’ve already played Louisville and Alabama away from Rupp Arena and have been showered with boos by their own fans throughout the season. That means hostile crowds are nothing new to this squad.
The environment won’t faze Kentucky at all, and the Wildcats have gone into full desperation mode after their two losses to Missouri and Alabama to open SEC play.
When Kentucky was forced to play with its back against the wall after consecutive losses to North Carolina and Gonzaga — the latter of which was in embarrassing fashion — the Wildcats responded with 12-point wins against both Indiana and St. John’s.
Kentucky was down 18-6 with 14:30 left in the first half to Mississippi State at home on Saturday. How did the Wildcats respond? They held the Bulldogs to 50 points in the remaining 34+ minutes of the game, eventually winning 92-68.
Mississippi State ranks 66th in defensive efficiency on KenPom. Kentucky started slow, but it scored 92 points against that unit in a 69-possession game (1.33 points per possession).
LSU is ranked 70th in defensive efficiency. The Wildcats likely won’t score 1.33 points per possession on the road, but they still can win comfortably without an elite offensive performance against a similarly-rated defense.
LSU Basketball
Matt McMahon took over the reins of the basketball program from Will Wade before the 2022-23 season. The pattern LSU has followed in every season is pretty similar.
The Tigers started 12-1 in ‘22-23, with a win in the conference opener against Arkansas before losing 16 of their final 17 regular-season league games.
LSU started 10-5 in ‘23-24 before losing seven of its next nine games. The Tigers then surged late to end the season a respectable 17-16.
Finally, the Tigers started 11-2 in ‘24-25 before losing 16 of their final 19 games (all in conference play and one conference tournament loss).
There’s a pattern here: Start hot and immediately fall off and start losing games, with the best-case scenario resulting in a late-season surge to stabilize the record a bit, and the worst-case scenario resulting in extended periods of losses once conference play begins.
After three games in conference play, this LSU team looks just like the Tiger teams of the past three years. LSU started 12-1 and then lost its first three conference games.
Admittedly, Tiger games have been a lot closer this season than some of the blowouts they’ve endured in the past. However, they also lost to South Carolina by 10 at home, and the Gamecocks are considered one of, if not the worst, teams in the conference.
LSU is also 10-18 ATS in conference play at home and 22-38-1 ATS in conference play overall under Matt McMahon.
Kentucky vs. LSU Betting Analysis
I'm picking Kentucky to cover the spread in this one. LSU is on a skid, and while the Wildcats haven't exactly lived up to expectations, Kentucky is the far more talented team. This is a perfect game for the Wildcats to assert that the dominant victory against Mississippi State wasn’t a fluke.
This is also a perfect matchup for the Wildcats’ strengths. Kentucky has struggled to score this season (44th-ranked offense on KenPom), but LSU doesn’t defend well (70th-ranked defense on KenPom).
LSU can score at a decent level (39th-ranked offense on KenPom), but Kentucky defends very well (25th-ranked defense on KenPom).
LSU’s offense is also last in the SEC in offensive efficiency during conference play (which is only a three-game sample size), while Kentucky is fifth in defensive efficiency.
Extend that comparison out to the whole season, and LSU and Kentucky are still comparable offensively, but Kentucky has the far better defense, which will carry it to the victory.
My Pick: Kentucky -4.5
