The Louisville Cardinals take on the Cal Bears in Berkeley, CA. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Louisville is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here’s my Louisville vs. Cal predictions and college basketball picks for December 30, 2025.
Louisville vs Cal Prediction
My Pick: Louisville -7.5
My Louisville vs Cal best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Louisville vs. Cal Odds
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | -350 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 160.5 -110 / -110 | +275 |
- Louisville vs Cal spread: Louisville -7.5
- Louisville vs Cal over/under: 160.5 points
- Louisville vs Cal moneyline: Louisville -350, Cal +275
Louisville vs Cal College Basketball Betting Preview
Louisville Basketball
Louisville is off to a 10-2 start in year two under Pat Kelsey, and the Cardinals are one of the most fun teams in college basketball for a variety of reasons.
Louisville has the sixth-best offense in the sport, and 55.4% of its field goal attempts come from 3-point range, the highest rate in the country. The Cardinals are connecting at a 36% clip from deep and rank 18th nationally in assist rate.
The spacing and shooting open up plenty of rim opportunities, leading to Louisville shooting 61.8% on 2-pointers, the ninth-best mark nationally.
The Cardinals’ two losses came in true road spots against strong SEC teams in Arkansas and Tennessee, by a combined margin of 30 points. Louisville also owns quality wins over Kentucky, Indiana, Cincinnati and Memphis.
One important stat I've been tracking with Louisville is how its 3-point shooting translates on the road against good defensive teams. In the losses to Arkansas and Tennessee — along with the 10-point win over Cincinnati — the Cardinals shot a combined 23-for-99 from 3, just 23%.
Star freshman and likely lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr. missed Louisville’s last two games with a back injury. He was a full participant in Sunday’s practice and is expected to play in this game.
Ryan Conwell is one of the most under appreciated scorers in the country. The senior guard is averaging 19.2 points per game while shooting 39% from 3.
Cal Basketball
Cal has been a pleasant surprise this season, as it's off to a 12-1 start in year three of the Mark Madsen era. The Bears have won nine straight, including an 80-72 win over UCLA on November 25. The lone blemish on their resume is a three-point road loss at Kansas State.
While Cal has played strong basketball, the clear knock on this team has been the weakness of its schedule. UCLA is its only win over a top-120 opponent, though it's a very good one.
Madsen built this roster primarily through the transfer portal, and his four biggest additions have all delivered.
Justin Pippen was a non-factor at Michigan, but he's found a home here, averaging 14.6 points and 4.3 assists per game.
Senior shooters Chris Bell (42%) and John Camden (44%) have been excellent from deep, as has leading scorer Dai Dai Ames, who's up to 17.7 points per game while shooting 46% from 3.
Cal is hitting 39.6% from deep as a team, the 13th-best mark in Division I.
Are these numbers inflated and a product of Cal’s 341st-ranked strength of schedule? The Golden Bears still sit at just 60th on KenPom despite their record.
It's worth mentioning that the shooting numbers aren't inflated vs. the weaker competition. In three games against power-conference opponents, Cal is a combined 33-for-68 from beyond the arc, good for 49%.
Louisville vs. Cal Betting Analysis
Do we have a potential upset alert here in the ACC opener?
Cal feels fairly real to me. I'm not sure if it's an NCAA Tournament team, but it looks like a top-half ACC caliber group. Getting 6.5 points feels like good value here at home.
That said, I'm leaning the other way. I mentioned earlier that Louisville has struggled shooting the ball and generating clean looks from deep against teams like Tennessee, Arkansas and Cincinnati.
While Cal has been solid defensively, I don't put it in that same tier in terms of perimeter athleticism and physicality.
When Louisville is able to push the tempo, generate paint touches and play off of that, its offense becomes extremely difficult to stop. While Cal can certainly keep pace if it knocks down double-digit 3s, I side with Kelsey’s group here.
I expect Louisville to be fully ready, as it's getting its offensive engine Brown back from injury in a key spot to finally secure a road win after getting beat up against those SEC foes.
I'll lay it with the Cardinals, as this is a talent mismatch.
My Pick: Louisville -7.5
