The LSU Tigers take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Fort Worth, TX. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Texas Tech is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Texas Tech prediction and college basketball picks for December 7, 2025.
LSU vs Texas Tech Prediction
My Pick: Texas Tech -6.5
My LSU vs Texas Tech best bet is on the Red Raiders to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
LSU vs. Texas Tech Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 151.5 -115o / -105u | -245 |
- LSU vs Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -6.5 (-105 ), LSU +6.5 (-115)
- LSU vs Texas Tech over/under: 151.5 (-115o / -105u)
- LSU vs Texas Tech moneyline: LSU +200, Texas Tech -245
LSU vs Texas Tech College Basketball Betting Preview
LSU Basketball
LSU will be walking into its first proper road environment of the season.
When LSU has the ball, it's used to getting whatever it wants inside, as it's 62.7% on 2-pointers (10th nationally) and has a top-20 effective field goal percentage.
But those numbers are directly tied to the level of competition the Tigers have faced.
Texas Tech is by far the best defensive unit LSU will see to date, ranking 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency and protecting the interior at a level LSU hasn’t encountered. Opponents shoot just 50.3% on 2-pointers against Tech, and the Red Raiders’ length disrupts LSU’s preferred rim-first scoring profile.
LSU also relies heavily on drawing fouls and earning trips to the line. Still, Texas Tech is elite at defending without fouling too often.
The Tigers may be used to earning bonus points at the stripe, but Tech isn’t giving them free points in their own building.
Another hidden matchup edge here is that LSU’s offense struggles more than it seems when it's forced into long, half-court possessions.
The Tigers shoot well, but their turnover rate begins to creep up against stronger ball-pressure defenses, which will pose a problem for them. LSU hasn’t yet dealt with a team that can pressure ball handlers without compromising rim protection.
Texas Tech Basketball
On the other side, this is where the game really starts leaning Tech’s way. LSU’s defense is respectable in areas, but it is far from complete. The Tigers' turnover percentage of 14.9% is among the worst in the country.
Texas Tech’s offense will be operating comfortably.
That’s critical because Tech’s half-court offensive system is built on spacing and patience. The Red Raiders own a 45.9% 3PA/FGA rate combined with a top-80 assist rate.
LSU hasn’t been tested by an offense that can stretch you horizontally while also dominating the extra-effort plays.
Texas Tech ranks 38th nationally in offensive rebounding, and LSU’s defensive rebounding rate appears strong, but again, it has been built almost entirely against teams with poor rebounding metrics.
Texas Tech represents a significant step up in physicality on the glass.
And while Tech’s effective field goal percentage looks middling at first glance, the underlying processes are encouraging. The Red Raiders' shot selection and spacing profile are dramatically better than the raw number suggests.
LSU, meanwhile, is quietly overperforming defensively, as teams are shooting just 31.1% from 3 against it despite generating clean looks in several games. That shooting luck doesn’t typically last, especially in a challenging road environment.
Tech doesn’t beat itself. LSU hasn’t yet proven it can execute in high-pressure, possession-by-possession games against tournament-level defenses.
A tight contest late favors the home team that has played in far more physical, defensive, grind-heavy matchups.
LSU vs. Texas Tech Betting Analysis
If you’re looking to sell high on an undefeated team before the market catches up, LSU is the perfect candidate. The Tigers are 7-0, and the wins look nice on paper, but the resume underneath isn't strong.
LSU has yet to face a single top-50 opponent by any primary metric. Nearly all its efficiency numbers are inflated by games against poor defensive teams that allow inflated shooting windows and limited rim resistance.
That changes dramatically on Saturday afternoon in Lubbock, where Texas Tech presents an entirely different level of physicality and defensive structure.
And context matters here, as LSU’s undefeated record has made it a bit overvalued. Texas Tech’s metrics come from a schedule that includes teams far more defensively capable than LSU’s opponents.
Between Texas Tech’s massive advantage in turnover avoidance, rim pressure defense, offensive rebounding and structured half-court scoring, I like its chances of covering.
Let's also factor in LSU’s dramatic step-up in opponent quality, making this the perfect buy-low, sell-high game.
My Pick: Texas Tech -6.5
