Thursday is the most glorious day of the year, as 16 games will be in action to open the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That means we're back for our Action Network college basketball content, and our proprietary model will help focus in and find edges for your best bets.
With that in mind, here are our March Madness picks and two total bets for Thursday's first-round games.
You can find all of our picks daily in the free Action Network app:
USF vs. Louisville
South Florida and Louisville square off in a matchup that pits fast-paced offenses against defenses that have tightened up late in the season.
Both teams have played at a high tempo all season — South Florida averaging 87.7 points per game and Louisville 84.8 — but this total feels inflated based on those season-long numbers, rather than how these teams are performing right now in a tournament setting.
South Florida, in particular, has leaned toward lower-scoring games lately, with the under hitting in eight of its last 10. That stretch includes a dominant 70-55 win over Wichita State in the American Conference title game.
Defensively, both teams are more than capable. The Bulls hold opponents to just 41.3% shooting, while the Cardinals rank 25th in defensive efficiency.
With the stakes rising, games like this often slow down. Possessions become more deliberate and shooting can suffer under pressure, making it tough for even up-tempo teams to score enough to clear a high number like 164.5.
Pick: Under 164.5
Saint Louis vs. Georgia
Georgia and Saint Louis offer one of the most interesting style clashes in the tournament.
Georgia comes in with the highest-scoring offense in program history, averaging 89.8 points per game. But the Bulldogs will be tested by a Saint Louis defense that's consistently shut down high-powered perimeter teams.
The Billikens rank first in the nation in field goal percentage defense (36.9%) and third in 3-point defense (28.3%). Their ability to switch and stay disciplined on the perimeter often throws offenses out of rhythm — something Georgia’s guard-heavy lineup will have to deal with all game.
A big key is transition play. Georgia leads the country with 19.9 fastbreak points per game, but Saint Louis is built to take that away. The Billikens rank third in defensive rebounding, which limits second chances and prevents the runouts Georgia relies on to pile up points.
Saint Louis also holds opponents to just 69.5 points per game, showing it can control tempo and dictate style. If the Billikens do that here, this game is more likely to turn into a half-court battle rather than a shootout, making the under a strong play against such a high total.
Pick: Under 169.5
