Survivor has been at the heart of the NFL for 20-plus years, so it was only a matter of time until the same game was to be brought to college basketball’s March Madness — considered by most to be the most thrilling event on the sports calendar.
Survivor has taken college basketball by storm over the last 5-6 NCAA Tournaments.
Below, I'll touch on my March Madness survivor picks and overall strategy to help you win your NCAA Tournament survivor pools ahead of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
March Madness Survivor Pool Strategy
Not unlike bracket pools, to find success in survivor, you need leverage against the rest of the pool. In clearer terms, you must take a contrarian angle in order to gain separation.
While making unique bracket pool picks is rather straightforward, survival requires far more finesse and long-term planning.
March Madness Survivor “game theory” requires that your entry is both unique, but more importantly, that you do not take an approach that impacts your ability to go the distance without either matchup conflict or merely running out of teams to select down the stretch.
One must also note that March Madness survivor requires another pick with each day as opposed to just selecting any two teams in any individual round.
Sometimes, multiple teams you planned on using long-term end up playing on the same day, which, in turn, significantly impacts your overall long-term strategy, backing you into a corner. That's a very common mistake in survivor pools.
The great majority of your survivor pool competition will simply select the team that they believe has the highest win equity on the slate or just a team with an extremely high likelihood of prevailing in the next round.
This approach will almost certainly lead to scenarios late in the tournament where you run out of teams to select, ultimately losing your entry.
The “safest” pick of a slate does not necessarily imply that the selection is optimal for your long-term strategy. That said, your selections in the first four days of the NCAA Tournament often hold vast significance to your entry’s path in the remainder of the tournament.
My initial approach to assessing potential selections in the first four days is to identify teams that I feel have both a high likelihood of winning, but more importantly, that I have strong conviction will ultimately have a capped ceiling or don't believe have what it takes to make a run deep into the tournament.
Another valuable factor to take into consideration is the size of your pool, which should certainly carry weight in your first few selections of the tournament.
Your overall strategy for a March Madness survivor pool with 50 other entries will likely differ from the survivor game theory in a pool that has 300 entries.
In huge survivor pools, the importance of taking a contrarian approach is far more significant, considering you will have far more competition in the later rounds of the tournament compared to a smaller one.
One final factor to consider for your overall strategy is the specific settings of your pool, which, in this case, often refers to “tiebreakers” when all entries have run out of teams to select.
In my pool, the total seeding of your entry will be the ultimate tiebreaker if all pool members run out of teams to select.
While this hasn't mattered in the past two tournaments because chalk has largely prevailed, this could certainly end up happening with tournaments that have a ton of underdogs advancing into the later rounds.
In larger pools with unique rules, there could surely be greater value in taking bigger risks with your selections throughout the first four days.
Taking all of this into consideration, I'll highlight a few picks I have my eyes on for both the Thursday and Friday slates in the first round.
March Madness Survivor Picks for Thursday
No. 5 Vanderbilt Commodores
vs. No. 12 McNeese
Led by an elite guard duo in Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, the 5-seed out of the South Region is an extremely popular pick to advance to the Sweet 16 after a very impressive showing in the SEC Tournament
Personally, I think fourth-seeded Nebraska is getting too much disrespect from the public. I have Nebraska making a run to the Sweet 16, which makes me comfortable taking Vandy on Thursday.
However, I expect the 'Dores to handle 12-seed McNeese with ease.
I'm not high on Vanderbilt making a run past a potential Sweet 16 appearance with Florida on the horizon, so there's a good chance I roll with the Commodores on Thursday.
No. 11 VCU Rams
vs. No. 6 UNC
I expect VCU to upset a Caleb Wilson-less Tar Heels team, which is one of my favorite picks of the first round.
In pools that have tiebreakers based on total seed, the Rams are a fantastic approach for Thursday.
March Madness Survivor Picks for Friday
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks
vs. No. 13 Cal Baptist
The 4-seed out of the East Region, Self’s Jayhawks have a very favorable first-round matchup with an undersized Cal Baptist bunch. I expect this to be a walk in the park for Kansas.
While many have the Jayhawks advancing to the Sweet 16, I think Rick Pitino’s St. John's team has the size and athleticism to take them down.
Now, there's a historical trend that says conference tournament champions could lay eggs in the NCAA Tournament, but I think the Johnnies are just too hot right now.
The public loves Northern Iowa to cover against St. John's and maybe even prevail outright, given the two teams’ contrasting pace of play.
But I don't see the vision. I don't think Kansas advances past the second round, which is why I feel comfortable playing it so early in the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tournament Kalshi Odds
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