The Marquette Golden Eagles take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis, Ind. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Butler is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -335. The total is set at 160.5 points.
Here’s my Marquette vs. Butler prediction and college basketball picks for January 23, 2026.
Marquette vs Butler Prediction
My Pick: Butler -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
My Marquette vs Butler best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Marquette vs. Butler Odds
| Marquette Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -102 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
| Butler Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -120 | 160.5 -110o / -110u | -335 |
- Marquette vs Butler spread: Butler -6.5
- Marquette vs Butler over/under: 160.5 points
- Marquette vs Butler moneyline: Marquette +265, Butler -335
Marquette vs Butler College Basketball Betting Preview
Marquette Basketball
Barring a miracle, this will be Marquette's first season missing the NCAA Tournament with Shaka Smart as the head coach.
The Golden Eagles' previous worst season under Smart was a 19-13 campaign that ended with a first-round NCAA Tournament exit. However, this group has already hit the 13-loss mark through just two-thirds of the season.
While Marquette's offseason roster construction choices – including the choice to ignore the transfer portal entirely – can be talked about at length, the fact of the matter is that it's now late January in a lost season for the Golden Eagles.
There are reasons for that beyond just what players are on the roster, though.
Marquette started the season ranked 47th on KenPom and has fallen steadily ever since. The main reason for that is Marquette's inability to dominate the turnover margin.
For the last three years, the Golden Eagles ranked top 30 on offense and defense in turnover rates, and ranked in the top 17 in steal rate on defense as well.
This season, Marquette still ranks 22nd in steal rate on defense, but it ranks outside the top 60 in turnover rate on both sides of the ball, despite still generating steals at an elite rate.
If there's one thing the Golden Eagles do right, it's getting to the rim at a crazy rate. Marquette has ranked in the top three of KenPom's new metric — average 2-point attempt distance — for each of the last three years, and ranks second this season.
The issue is that despite getting to the rim better than every team in the country — except Saint Louis — the Golden Eagles are 256th in 2-point percentage.
For a while, many assumed those numbers would naturally converge over the course of the season, but if Marquette can't capitalize on the great looks at the rim it gets, it won't keep many games close.
Butler Basketball
Butler is in a must-win situation here. The Bulldogs are firmly a bubble team – and if it isn't on the bubble, it's definitely not on the right side of it – and can't afford to lose to any team below the middle of the Big East standings (which definitely includes Marquette, which is 2-7 in conference play).
There are a few interesting quirks about this matchup that could complicate what should be an easy win for Butler.
First, the Bulldogs have the second-worst 2-point percentage defense (and second-worst defense overall) among Big East teams during conference play. If nothing else, Marquette will get as close to the rim as possible and can exploit Butler's most fatal defensive flaw.
However, the Bulldogs do have a clear stylistic advantage that will likely offset any slight edge in favor of the Golden Eagles. Butler is a much more physical team and will absolutely bully Marquette on the boards and get to the free-throw line at an even more impressive clip.
Butler is the best offense in the Big East at getting to the free-throw line (42.2% free-throw rate), while Marquette's defense fouls at a relatively average rate (fifth in the conference in free-throw rate allowed).
The Bulldogs might be able to raise their free-throw attempts even more in this game because Marquette is the worst defensive rebounding team in the Big East. Meanwhile, Butler is average (sixth in the conference) at grabbing offensive rebounds of its own.
The Bulldogs have a clear path to win this game: take care of the ball, get shots up and, even on misses, use their clear physical advantages to dominate the offensive glass and generate extra possessions and more free-throw attempts.
Marquette vs. Butler Betting Analysis
Even though the Golden Eagles have floated in the range of five-to-nine point losses in more evenly-matched games, they have also been blown out by double-digits many times this season.
I think there are reasons to believe that Marquette could keep this game close and potentially pull off an upset on the road.
However, some of the main predictive metric sites don't share that same optimism, saying that this line is way too tight. EvanMiya has Butler at -7.7, KenPom has this game as an 85-75 win for Butler, and Bart Torvik has Butler as an 11.9-point favorite with a projected score of 86-75.
Even our Action PRO line has this up near -9 (at the time of writing). While that's only a C+ grade in our system, it's still notable when combined with the other metrics and my analysis.
All in all, I agree with all the advanced metrics here.
The Bulldogs will recognize the must-win situation and exploit their physical advantage to win this game by a very comfortable margin.
My Pick: Butler -6.5 (Play to -7.5)
