Maryland-Belmont Betting Odds: Opening Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

#6 Maryland vs. #11 Belmont NCAA Tournament Betting Odds

• Spread: Maryland -3.5
• Over/Under: 147
• Date: Thursday, March 21
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Location: Jacksonville, Fla.
• TV: truTV

Maryland's Statistical Profile

A well-balanced bunch, the Terrapins were one of just 13 teams to finish the regular season inside the top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Ultimately, that resulted in a 13-7 conference record and a fifth place finish in the Big Ten.

The closest thing Maryland had to a statement win came at home against Purdue just over a month ago. After closing as a 2-point underdog, the Terps came away with a convincing 14-point victory over the then No. 12 Boilermakers.

As for the low point of the year, that came at home against Illinois. Maryland closed at -9, but ended up dropping the game by 11 to an Illini team that finished third to last in the Big Ten regular season standings.

Maryland missed the tournament last season, but this appearance marks its fourth in five years. The Terps were bounced in the first round as a 6-seed by No. 11 Xavier in 2017. — Danny Donahue

• Record: 22-10
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 24
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 27
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 23
• Tempo Rank: 272

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Belmont's Statistical Profile

Belmont is certainly not a basketball powerhouse, but it does have one of the better offensive squads in the nation this year. Per KenPom, the Bruins rank 21st in offensive efficiency and 32nd in pace. Those marks helped them go 16-9-2 against-the-spread (ATS), but by losing the Ohio Valley tourney final against Murray State they were forced to get in with an at-large bid.

This mid-major squad certainly had an impressive season, though, with a 26-5 overall record, including a nice road win at UCLA. The relatively-untested Bruins will need to play their best defense if they want to make it past the first round, as their defensive efficiency is ranked over 100 spots worse than their offense.

Under long-time coach Rick Byrd, Belmont has made the tourney seven times in history (all since 2006) but has never made the second round. — Mark Gallant

• Record: 26-5
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 53
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 21
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 129
• Tempo Rank: 32

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Maryland-Belmont Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

The Terps will be a popular upset pick in this one, but that depends on which teams they face in the Round of 64. The Owls own the AAC's top 3-point defense (29.6%), which is Maryland's biggest strength. Meanwhile, the Bruins have been kind to perimeter-oriented offenses, giving up the third-highest 3-point clip (36.4%) amid their OVC docket.

Were Temple to move on, the Owls would give Maryland's frontcourt a run of its money with their ability to matchup in the frontcourt as well.

Since Belmont is structured around its 3-point shooting, the Owls have an advantage in the play-in game, triggering their own explosive shooting from behind the arc in transition. I'm expecting Temple to thrive around this run representing Fran Dunphy's final season coaching and advance to the second weekend.

Early ATS lean:
Early bracket pick: Temple — Eli

Sean Koerner's Maryland-Belmont Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: Maryland -5
• Total: 148
• Proj Score: Maryland 76.5 | Belmont 71.5
• Win Probability: Maryland 66.1% | Belmont 33.9%