The McNeese State Cowboys play the Vanderbilt Commodores in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
Vanderbilt is favored by -11.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -880. Meanwhile, McNeese is the underdog at +11.5 points with a moneyline of +580. The total is set at 150.5 points.
Here’s my McNeese vs. Vanderbilt predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2026.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt Prediction
My Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 (Play to -12.5)
My McNeese vs Vanderbilt best bet is on the Commodores to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt Odds
| McNeese St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 150.5 -105o / -115u | +580 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 150.5 -105o / -115u | -880 |
- McNeese vs Vanderbilt spread: Vanderbilt -11.5
- McNeese vs Vanderbilt over/under: 150.5 points
- McNeese vs Vanderbilt moneyline: McNeese +580, Vanderbilt -880
McNeese vs Vanderbilt College Basketball Betting Preview
Vanderbilt Basketball
Vanderbilt got completely hosed, getting a five-seed after a 26-7 season with only one loss outside of Quad 1.
It appears the committee wasn’t paying attention to the SEC Tournament, where Vanderbilt took down Tennessee for the second time in a six-day span and blasted No. 1 seed Florida by 17.
The No. 5 seed Commodores are No. 3 seed caliber, evidenced by being ranked 12th in KenPom.
Mark Byington has done a tremendous job with this program, and the Dores are playing some great basketball down the stretch — Vandy had won four straight before Arkansas pulled away late in the SEC Tournament Championship game.
First Team All-SEC guard Tyler Tanner is the engine for this balanced and dangerous offense, the seventh-most efficient unit in the country. Tanner is lightning quick off the dribble and excellent at the rim. His playmaking works well in Byington’s scheme, which emphasizes ball security, quick decision-making and 3-point shooting.
That works well with three floor-spacing bigs in Devin McGlockton, AK Okereke and Jalen Washington, in addition to Tyler Nickel on the wing, who's one of the top shooters in the country.
The potent offense is the main story for this group, but they are connected and disruptive defensively as well. Duke Miles and Tanner hound ball handlers, and although undersized in the frontcourt, this group is positionally sound and forces a lot of mid-range shots.
McNeese Basketball
McNeese is dancing for a third straight season, but this time, it’s under the leadership of Bill Armstrong, who led the Cowboys to a 28-5 record this season.
McNeese won 10 games in a row to end the season and punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament. The Cowboys did need three overtimes to take down UT Rio Grande Valley in the Southland semis, but then handed first-place Stephen F. Austin a 76-59 loss in the final.
While it’s no longer Will Wade at the helm and the players are different, this iteration of McNeese is quite similar to the previous versions that made the NCAA Tournament.
McNeese forces turnovers better than any other team in the nation, doing so on nearly 25% of opponent possessions. This is also an elite shot-blocking team, with the fourth-best block rate in the country.
Offensively, this team wants to play fast and run in transition off live-ball turnovers. The backcourt of Larry Johnson and Tyshawn Archie is high usage, as both guys can get downhill and make plays. Archie is the team’s only reliable 3-point shooter (38%), as it shoots just 31.6% from deep.
Javohn Garcia won Player of the Year in the Southland last season, and is only the team’s third leading scorer this year.
Things didn’t click for Garwey Dual at Providence or Seton Hall, but he’s become a great playmaker and defender for McNeese.
McNeese vs Vanderbilt Pick, Betting Analysis
McNeese’s recent results in the NCAA Tournament strongly inform my read on this one.
In 2023-24, Gonzaga won 86-65 in the 12-5 matchup. Last season, McNeese pulled off a 69-67 upset over Clemson, but that was a game in which the Tigers were allergic to the basket and scored a laughable 13 points in the first half. In the second round, a skilled Purdue team took an early lead and held control throughout, winning 76-62.
I view Vanderbilt in the same category as those Gonzaga and Purdue teams — high-quality point guard play, an offensive wizard at head coach and with the requisite amount of decision makers and shooters to capitalize on McNeese’s aggressive style.
Garcia, Johnson, Archie and Dual will make some plays offensively, but I don’t think it will be enough to keep this close.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -11.5 (Play to -12.5)
