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The Merrimack Warriors take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in Rock Hill, SC. Tip-off is set for 6 a.m. ET on YouTube.
Merrimack is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. The total is set at 134.5 points.
Here’s my Merrimack vs. App State prediction and college basketball picks for November 2, 2026.
Merrimack vs App State Prediction
Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 133)
My Merrimack vs App State best bet is on the under. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Merrimack vs App State Odds
| Merrimack Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
| App State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | +142 |
- Merrimack vs App State spread: Merrimack -3.5 (-105), App State +3.5 (-115)
- Merrimack vs App State over/under: 134.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Merrimack vs App State moneyline: Merrimack -170, App State +142
Merrimack vs App State College Basketball Preview
App State Basketball
You know what you’re getting from App State every year. The Mountaineers will have a winning record and push for 20 wins and a top-four spot in the Sun Belt. Plus, they're regularly one of the best mid-major defensive teams in the country.
App State's bread and butter over the past four seasons is elite rim protection and defense. Dustin Kerns had some absolute stud bigs in that time, including Tre'Von Spillers, Justin Abson and CJ Huntley.
Last year, Luke Wilson and Michael Marcus Jr. both took strides, but can Kerns do it again with Wilson and Marcus gone? He brought in 7-foot Frenchman Bryan Chretien, and backup big Chad Moodie is back.
I don't expect the Mountaineers' rim protection to be as stout, and they also brought in better guards this year. That means I expect a bit of a shift.
Standout guard Eren Banks is back, and he looked dazzling in App State's two exhibition games, scoring 20+ points in both. Kerns also brought in JUCO transfers, Mason Costello, KJ Vasser and Jaylen Colon.
Costello shot 41% from 3, and Vassar could be a dynamic lead guard who helps Banks and Hermann Koffi get good shots.
Last season, the Mountaineers attempted a lot of 3s but made just 30% of them. Their offensive rebounding bailed them out, but they should shoot a bit better this season. I don't think their offensive rebounding will be as good, though.
In this game, the key is ball control. Vasser should get most of the ball-handling duties, but he hasn't played in over a year and never at this level. This will be a tough opening test for him.
Merrimack Basketball
The only thing Joe Gallo is missing is his first-ever NCAA Tournament bid. He led the Warriors to a MAAC regular season title last year and will hope for a similar result this year.
Gone are three of the Warriors' top-four scorers: Kevair Kennedy, Ernest Shelton and Andres Marrero. Tye Dorset is the one returnee from that group, averaging 11.7 points per game.
Similar to Kerns, Gallo is a defensive tactician. He does it differently, though. Gallo calls his defense the "Make Chaos" zone, and they make plenty of chaos. The Warriors finished top-40 in defensive turnover rate in all seven seasons at the D-I level under Gallo.
Gallo rosters just one player above 6-foot-8, and it's freshman Jacob Moore. If a team can get past the pesky defense, they could score inside, but it's easier said than done.
The Warriors may have found a gem in Elijah Willborn, a 6-foot-8, 255-pound big, who can play next to the floor-stretching Todd Brogna.
The key? Can Merrimack do enough in the half-court? We know it can get a few scoop-and-scores. But where is the scoring coming from? One option is freshman Ayden Johnson, who could be the next terrific homegrown guard following in the footsteps of Adam "Budd" Clark and Kennedy.
Still, Gallo would prefer a lower-scoring game. He deploys one of the nation's slowest tempos and would love a game in the 60-point range.
Merrimack vs. App State Pick, Betting Analysis
Last year, Merrimack and App State played at two of the 20 slowest tempos in the country.
The Mountaineers scored even less because they shot so poorly, and Merrimack had occasional hot games from 3, but I think it downgraded in offensive talent.
I expect a game in the 60s here.
Two deliberate teams with offensive question marks in game one? Sure, it'll be a slog.
Pick: Under 134.5 (Play to 133)
