The Miami Hurricanes take on the Virginia Cavaliers in the 2026 ACC Tournament in Charlotte, N.C., on Friday, March 13. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN Networks.
Virginia is favored by 4.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -185. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +4.5 underdog and is +154 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 143.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Virginia prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, March 13.
Miami vs Virginia Prediction
My Pick: Under 143.5
My Miami vs Virginia best bet is on the under. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Miami vs. Virginia Odds
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -103 | 143.5 -112o / -110u | +154 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -116 | 143.5 -112o / -110u | -185 |
- Miami (FL) vs Virginia Spread: Virginia -4.5
- Miami (FL) vs Virginia Over/Under: 143.5 points
- Miami (FL) vs Virginia Moneyline: Miami +154, Virginia -185
Miami vs Virginia College Basketball Betting Preview
This line opened Virginia -3.5 and has been bet up to 4.5 or 5 in some spots. The total sits at 144.5. I'm going to take the under here.
We have a matchup in the ACC Tournament semifinals between the second- and fifth-most efficient defenses in the country. Virginia has the best 2-point and 3-point defense in the ACC and leads the conference in effective field goal percentage on defense.
Miami didn't shoot the ball overly well against Louisville, but the Canes were consistently bailed out with foul calls and subsequent trips to the stripe. I don't see such fortuitous whistles against Virginia for Miami on Friday.
I expect the length of Ugonna Onyenso and Johann Grunloh to cause issues for Miami when the Canes penetrate into the painted area. The Cavaliers lead the ACC in blocks and altered shots, and both of the men in the middle have a combined 161 rejections on the season.
I foresee a struggle for Miami around the rim, which will lead to empty possessions. A strength for Miami is its offensive rebounding prowess, but I feel this will be neutralized against the Virginia defense, specifically if the Canes get deep into the possession clock and have to settle for deep, low-percentage 3s.
Miami shoots fewer 3-point shots than anybody in the conference and wants to get into the lane, but I think it struggles to operate that way in this game.
Virginia shoots 3s at a high rate, but the Wahoos haven't had a tremendous amount of success seeing the bottom of the nets from deep. They shoot just 33.2% from deep in ACC play, good enough for third-worst in the league.
Virginia is going to struggle collecting offensive boards against Miami, which is the best defensive rebounding team in the ACC.
Miami slowed the tempo significantly against Louisville, and playing on back-to-back days (and potentially on Saturday), I don't imagine that the Canes want to run here. I can see Virginia playing slower as well after just squaring off against NC State on Thursday. The tempo should be sub-65 total possessions.
The first meeting between these two was in the 80s, with each team shooting 50% from deep. I don't think we see the hot shooting continue. Sam Lewis buried four deep shots for Virginia on Thursday, something he hadn’t done in a game in over a month.
With a trip to the ACC title on the line, we'll see the possessions really matter late, so I expect both teams to be more methodical in the half-court. I'm diving in on the under here.
My Pick: Under 143.5
