The Miami (OH) RedHawks play the SMU Mustangs in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 9:15 p.m. ET on truTV.
SMU is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -295. Meanwhile, Miami (OH) is the underdog at +6.5 with a moneyline of +235. The total is set at 163.5 points.
Here’s my Miami (OH) vs. SMU predictions and college basketball picks for March 18, 2026.
Miami (OH) vs SMU Prediction
My Pick: Over 163.5
My Miami (OH) vs SMU best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Miami (OH) vs SMU Odds
| Miami (OH) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 163.5 -110o / -110u | -295 |
- Miami (OH) vs SMU spread: SMU -6.5
- Miami (OH) vs SMU over/under: 163.5 points
- Miami (OH) vs SMU moneyline: Miami (OH) +235, SMU -295
Miami (OH) vs SMU College Basketball Betting Preview
Miami (OH) is already America’s Cinderella and it hasn’t even played an NCAA Tournament game yet. The RedHawks fell short of a perfect season, but a 31-1 record heading into the Big Dance is nothing to sneeze at.
They have their fair share of haters due to their soft schedule and low metrics, but what they did is not easy – and we likely will never see something like it again at the mid-major level.
Underestimate Miami at your own peril. This is a team that knows how to win and is extremely confident. Confidence and a winning DNA can take you far in a one-game tournament setting. The RedHawks are mentally tough and among the most connected teams in the country.
However, it's true SMU is a big step up in class. Akron was the only top-100 KenPom team Miami played all season, and SMU is the quickest, most athletic and most talented team the RedHawks have seen.
Miami should be able to score against SMU, whose defense is just so-so. The Mustangs are a below average ball-screen defense, and that’s an action Miami relies on heavily in the half-court. SMU might mix in a little zone — as it has all season — but Miami has fared well in the limited zone it's seen this season. The RedHawks are perfectly fine bombing away from deep, too.
In fact, that’s likely how Miami keeps this one close. SMU’s rim defense is stout and it ranks 354th nationally in 3-point attempt rate allowed, meaning Miami should get plenty of looks over the top and limited looks in the paint. If the RedHawks and their plethora of shooters get hot, they can pull the upset.
SMU has a massive speed and athleticism advantage, though that does taper off a bit with the injury to B.J. Edwards, who's questionable to play. Boopie Miller should have a monster game, and he’s the best guard Miami has seen all season.
Akron’s Tavari Johnson poured in 22 points against the RedHawks' defense, so Miller could get 30+. Jaron Pierre Jr. is also an excellent backcourt piece and matchup nightmare.
Transition is key for SMU, an up-tempo offense that thrives in the open floor. Miami is decent defending in transition, but again, this is the best attack it's seen.
Expect plenty of pick-and-roll action for Miller in the half-court and constant feeding of the rock to 7-foot-2 center Samet Yigitoglu on the block. Miami doesn’t have an answer for Yigitoglu and SMU is highly efficient inside. It could be a bit of a bloodbath in the paint.
I liked Miami at the higher spread earlier in the week, but with the money coming in, this line is simply too short. SMU’s talent and athleticism edge is hard to ignore even with the Miami moxie. The over could be the strongest play, with both teams able to score on the other.
The only concern is if Travis Steele comes into the game with a plan to take the air out of the ball and limit possessions. Miami plays with confidence and isn’t afraid of a challenge, so it’s more likely it tries going toe-to-toe with SMU in a high-possession game.
In that scenario, the over should hit.
My Pick: Over 163.5
