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The Duke Blue Devils take on the Michigan State Spartans in Chicago, IL. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Duke is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270 The total is set at 149.5 points.
Here’s my Duke vs. Michigan State prediction and college basketball picks for November 10, 2026.
Duke vs Michigan State Prediction
Pick: Under 149.5 (Play to 148.5)
My Duke vs Michigan State best bet is on the under. Be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page and download the Action Network app for the latest picks and analysis.
Duke vs Michigan State Odds
| Duke Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 149.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
- Duke vs Michigan State spread: Duke -6.5 (-110), Michigan State +6.5 (-110)
- Duke vs Michigan State over/under: 149.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Duke vs Michigan State moneyline: Duke -270, Michigan State +220
Duke vs Michigan State College Basketball Preview
Duke Basketball
Duke had the socials buzzing before the season even started after dismantling Tennessee, 103-64. Its third exhibition game came against Kansas, where the Blue Devils picked up a 90-84 win inside Allen Fieldhouse.
However, when I took them in their first regular season game against Army, they fell short of covering the massive spread. The Blue Devils followed that up by putting 113 points on the board against Coastal Carolina, winning by 61.
Jon Scheyer's boys are loaded and, much like Michigan State, have their eyes set on Detroit.
Michigan State Basketball
Delivering the belt to their first two opponents of the college basketball season comes as no surprise, as the Michigan State Spartans look to make yet another deep run under head coach Tom Izzo. With Jeremy Fears Jr. leading the way, the ceiling is the roof, per Michael Jordan.
Sparty has taken down both Quinnipiac and Toledo by 30-plus points in its first two games. Now, the Spartans face their first true test of the season against the Duke Blue Devils, the No. 1-rated team on Bart Torvik.
Izzo's boys should be more than ready for this one, as they faced UConn and Marquette in exhibition games before the season started, losing both. The Spartans followed those defeats with back-to-back blowout wins, and you can bet Izzo made sure they corrected those issues.
Duke vs. Michigan State Pick, Betting Analysis
I love both teams in this matchup. I do think 6.5 is a lot for the Blue Devils to cover on a neutral-site court, but they are certainly talented enough to do it.
However, with both teams boasting exceptional defenses, the under is the play for me. I locked in 148.5 on Monday afternoon.
The pace of this game should have absolutely zero urgency, as both teams rank in the 200s in tempo, according to Haslametrics.
Michigan State hasn't been particularly efficient at the free-throw line or from mid-range. Duke, meanwhile, has been excellent at limiting fouls, ranking 37th in free throw rate defense. That should help keep scoring at a premium.
One concern is that the Spartans haven't been keeping their hands to themselves, currently ranking 281st in free throw rate defense. If they expect to keep this game close, they'll have to clean things up defensively.
The game of the week should be a defensive brawl. I want no part of picking a side, although I do lean with ole Sparty. I'll stick to rooting for bricks.
Pick: Under 149.5 (Play to 148.5)
