The Michigan State Spartans play the UConn Huskies in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament in Washington, D.C., on Friday, March 27. Tip-off is set for 9:45 p.m. ET on CBS.
UConn is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Meanwhile, Michigan State is the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of +110. The over/under sits at 134.5 total points.
Here’s my Michigan State vs. UConn prediction and college basketball picks for Friday, March 27.
Michigan State vs UConn Prediction
My Pick: UConn -1.5
My Michigan State vs UConn best bet is on the Huskies to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Michigan State vs UConn Odds
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -108 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -112 | 134.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Michigan State vs UConn Spread: Michigan State +1.5, UConn -1.5
- Michigan State vs UConn Over/Under: 134.5 Points
- Michigan State vs UConn Moneyline: Michigan State +110, UConn -130
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Michigan State vs UConn College Basketball Betting Preview
There are a ton of great storylines to watch in this matchup, as it pits two of the best programs of the last half-century against one another.
Both coaches have cut down the nets at the end of a season and are two of the best NCAA Tournament game planners in the sport.
UConn's Dan Hurley and Michigan State's Tom Izzo have very strong teams, both with some real elite skills. In nearly every case, that elite skill or quality is matched by the opponent, making this sure to be a tight contest Friday night.
Michigan State Basketball
Michigan State made it through the NCAA Tournament's first weekend fairly pain-free. The Spartans coasted against North Dakota State and held a steady lead against Louisville.
Michigan State was successful in the postseason the same way it was all season long. When Sparty has the ball, all eyes are on Jeremy Fears Jr.
Tom Izzo's point guard broke the school record for assists in a season this season, which is especially notable given the names who have led offenses in East Lansing over the years.
He leads the nation in assist rate this season, recording an assist on more than half his teammates' buckets when he's on the floor.
A ton of that is due to Michigan State's repeated use of ball-screen action. Sparty ranked in the top 5% in the country in using both pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop plays, per Hoop-Explorer.
Fears works well with Carson Cooper, a roller, and Jaxon Kohler, a popper, with other Spartans placed on wings ready to shoot.
UConn makes for an interesting matchup for that reason. The Huskies faced plenty of ball screens and fared well, particularly against rollers.
Tarris Reed is an able defensive big, and UConn's guards are tenacious at the point of attack. Fears will absolutely be up to all of his tricks to force contact and step to the free-throw line.
UConn Basketball
The Huskies won twice in Philadelphia last weekend, with the first round game against 15-seed Furman standing out as the tougher test.
That game ended as a double-figure win for Hurley's Huskies, yet Furman was within five points in the final minutes.
UConn was buoyed by an incredible performance from Reed, who posted 31 points and 27 rebounds, including 11 on the offensive end of the floor. It's a small sample size, but Reed is averaging 20 rebounds per game in the NCAA Tournament.
Reed is the anchor on the interior for a UConn offense that has so many ways to beat an opponent.
Connecticut runs complicated, sequenced set plays on the offensive end of the floor, built to get Reed a touch on the block or a shooter an open look from beyond the arc.
With a host of players able to step up at any moment, UConn is especially dangerous. If opponents can guard the Huskies through screens, cuts, movement and pass after pass, they'll also bully them on the offensive glass.
That's one area where UConn meets its match in this game. Sparty was the top defensive rebounding team this season, cleaning the glass better than anyone.
Michigan State vs UConn Pick, Betting Analysis
The path for a Michigan State win, as expected, runs through Fears.
The Spartan offense goes as he goes — not as a scorer but as a playmaker. He averages north of nine assists in both wins and losses, yet in Michigan State's seven losses this season, Fears actually averages more shots, more free-throw attempts and more points than he does in wins.
Teams that can make him a scoring option without passing lanes available have made life tougher for Fears and very difficult for the other Spartans, who can't really create their own look.
If Fears can draw contact against a slap-happy UConn team and he's constantly at the free-throw line, that's a win for Michigan State. But it also means Michigan State isn't playing in rhythm and finding open 3s.
It also might mean Hurley explodes on the sideline, but that's expected at this point.
UConn has the guards and the discipline to handle Fears without overhelping and allowing the Spartan offense to get rolling.
The Huskies will have plenty of ways to find their own points, especially from Solo Ball, who's ready for a breakout after making just two of his last 18 looks from deep.
My Pick: UConn -1.5 (Play to -3.5)
