Michigan vs Michigan State Odds, Pick: Rivalry Game Guide

While no one would confuse the basketball rivalry between the Michigan State Spartans and the Michigan Wolverines with Duke and North Carolina or Kentucky and Louisville, it has consistently been a back-and-forth series with plenty of characters and moments.

The two teams are in dire straits for their first meeting this season.

Michigan is an outright disaster, with off-the-court drama piling up behind on-court mediocrity. Michigan State still has an NCAA Tournament future but has performed wildly beneath expectations.

That almost works in favor of building some excitement. A rivalry is at its best when both teams are thriving, but the second-best scenario is when both teams need a win.

The state of the basketball program in Ann Arbor is on a see-saw, directly opposite that of the school's football program.

After the Wolverines rose to the mountaintop on the gridiron, winning the national title in January, the basketball team began descending into madness and mediocrity. The Wolverines' year on the hardwood has been filled with drama.

Head coach Juwan Howard missed ten games due to heart surgery and (oddly) stepped aside for an eleventh game so assistant coach Phil Martelli could coach in his hometown. Howard was also the subject of rumors of an altercation with a staff member. Worst of all, leading scorer Dug McDaniel is currently serving one of the strangest suspensions in recent memory — Tuesday night will be the third game he's missed, as McDaniel is currently not allowed to travel to road games for unspecified academic/personal reasons.

The resulting mishmash of a Big Ten season, where its best player only suits up half the time, has been a mess. Michigan is 2-7 in the Big Ten and has lost eight of its past nine games. On the season, Michigan still rates as a top 50 offense in the country by KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric. Without McDaniel, however, the Wolverines are scoring just 0.918 points per possession in two games. It's a small sample size not adjusted for opponents, but as a raw piece of data, that mark would tie Michigan with Boston University for 334th best in college hoops.

On the other end of the floor, you don't need to try to adjust or cherry-pick. Michigan is flat-out bad defensively, failing to force enough tough shots or potential turnovers. Good teams with good coaches (see: Tom Izzo) will find ways to take advantage and score.

Most teams don't have fans and media members trying to diagnose fatal flaws after a streak of eight wins over an eleven-game stretch.

On the other hand, most teams don't have Michigan State's expectations nor Sparty's rocky start.

The Spartans opened the season in the top five of the AP Poll yet quickly caused a panic, starting 4-5, including an opening night home loss to James Madison.

12-8 is a disappointing start for this team because the Spartans are talented, experienced, and coached by a legend. This roster has ten players who entered college as top 100 recruits, plus a one-time prize of the transfer portal (Tyson Walker). Of the 360+ teams in Division I, only 23 brought back more continuity from last season, per KenPom.

Yet, for some reason, the pieces have not clicked.

The more significant issues come on the offensive end, where the Spartans can look sluggish and play inefficiently. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in free throw rate and 315th nationally in 3-point rate. That resulting middle ground leads Sparty to shoot the 12th highest rate of 2-point jump shots in the country. Even worse, Michigan State is shooting 38 percent on 2-point jump shots, ranking 182nd (per Hoop-Math).

The offense is built around an inefficient way to score and, even then, isn't good at it. The mid-range has fallen out of style, but if you commit to it, at least get mid-range shots you can and will make.

More than half of Malik Hall's shots this year are 2-point jumpers. Tyson Walker has taken nearly 200 shots inside the arc but only 69 free throws. AJ Hoggard has forced up 76 two-point jumpers, with just two coming via an assist.

That is an unsustainable way to win against Big Ten defenses.

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In researching this game, I discovered a stat that made my eyes pop out of my head.

This season, Michigan State is 10-1-1 ATS when the Spartans have less rest between games than their opponents. With equal or more rest, the Spartans are 0-8.

That is so backward. I assumed it was ripe for regression.

Dig into the past, however, and it's a real trend. Since 2013, Tom Izzo and Sparty are 68-44-2 ATS with a rest disadvantage (60.7%), compared to 54.7% with a rest advantage (spoiler alert: Tom Izzo is pretty good no matter what).

Michigan State played Friday, while the Wolverines played Saturday, giving Sparty a leg up.

Even with Izzo's history in mind, the Spartans will not go winless ATS in that situation, and this is a perfect chance to pick up a win in that column.

Michigan has been adrift offensively in the games played without McDaniel, which I'd expect to continue in East Lansing. Sportsbooks haven't entirely caught up to how bad Michigan has been. The Wolverines are 2-12 ATS in December and January and 0-2 without McDaniel.

I'll trust "Little Brother" to take care of business and kick the wounded Wolverines while they're down.

Pick: Michigan State -11.5

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