The Missouri Tigers play the Miami (FL) Hurricanes in the first round of the NCAA Tournament from St. Louis, Missouri. Tip-off is set for 10:10 p.m. ET on truTV.
Miami is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Meanwhile, Missouri is the underdog at +1.5 with a moneyline of +108. The total is set at 147.5 points.
Here’s my Missouri vs. Miami prediction and college basketball picks for March 20, 2026.
Missouri vs Miami Prediction
My Pick: Missouri ML +108
My Missouri vs Miami best bet is on the Tigers to win outright. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Missouri vs Miami Odds
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -106 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | +108 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -114 | 147.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Missouri vs Miami spread: Miami -1.5
- Missouri vs Miami over/under: 147.5 points
- Missouri vs Miami moneyline: Missouri +108, Miami -130
Missouri vs Miami College Basketball Betting Preview
Missouri Basketball
Dennis Gate has Mizzou dancing for the third time in four years. The Tigers finished the regular season 20-12 with a 10-8 mark in the SEC. After a rough stretch in the middle of the season, Mizzou won six of eight games to earn an NCAA Tournament bid, although that’s been tainted a bit by three straight losses to end the season.
Metrically speaking, Missouri is one of the weakest at-large teams, all the way down at 52nd in KenPom and outside the top 50 on both ends. However, KenPom doesn’t account for injuries, as this team has played it’s best basketball with Jayden Stone and Trent Pierce healthy, and with T.O. Barrett as a bigger piece of the puzzle.
Mizzou is similar to Miami in that it wants to get out in transition and play more physical than you on the interior.
It all starts with Mark Mitchell, the matchup nightmare inside who Mizzou rides heavily. He leads the Tigers in points, rebounds and assists (18.3, 5.3, 3.6). Mitchell lives at the free-throw line, and as a team, Mizzou is 28th in the country in free-throw attempt rate.
Mitchell and seven-footer Shawn Phillips Jr. are big reasons why the Tigers are 39th in the country in offensive rebounding rate.
Mizzou has some serious shooters in Pierce, Stone and Jacob Crews off the ball. The backcourt duo of Barrett and Anthony Robinson II are quick athletes who love to get downhill. A lot of players on this team are turnover prone though, as this group was last in the SEC in turnover rate.
Defensively, this group has it’s struggles. Opponents are shooting 36.5% from deep on the season, and Gates' teams always are bad on the defensive glass. The Tigers have defended the interior well, with the third-best opponent 2-point percentage allowed in the SEC.
Miami Basketball
In his first season at Miami, Jai Lucas steered the Hurricanes to a remarkable 25-8 record and 13-5 mark in the ACC, finishing third in the league.
Lucas brought together an entirely new roster, setting a high floor with proven veterans and an identity of physicality and toughness. This group came together really nicely and outperformed expectations.
Miami plays a very physical brand of basketball, and it all starts on the defensive end of the floor. The Canes have big physical veterans like Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau anchoring the interior, and energetic athletes like Tre Donaldson, Tru Washington, Shelton Henderson and Dante Allen at the guard and wing spots.
The Canes grade out as the 38th-best defense in the country this season, per KenPom, with their biggest weakness lying in opponents shooting 35.4% from deep.
Miami really controls the glass on both ends, as the Canes were the top rebounding team in the ACC.
Offensively, this group lives close to the basket. Lucas emphasizes downhill attacking from guards, paint scoring and getting out in transition off stops or misses. The Hurricanes finished the season 28th in effective field goal percentage nationally.
They don’t take a lot of 3s (bottom-30 in 3-point attempt rate nationally), but Donaldson and some other guys are capable when open. Sniper Noam Dovrat will come in off the bench and make an impact in limited minutes, too.
Reneau earned First Team All-ACC honors with 18.8 points and 6.6 rebounds per game, while Donaldson was named second team with his 16.5 points and 5.8 assists.
Missouri vs Miami Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a really interesting clash between two very similar teams. Both of these squads look best when bullying their opponent, but they can’t bully each other, right?
A big swing factor in this game is foul trouble. Reneau/Udeh and Mitchell/Phillips is such a dead even push that if one of those guys has to miss a lot of action due to the whistle, it could completely reshape the game.
Miami has been more consistent this season, it has the best guard on the floor in Donaldson, and, in my opinion, the better coach already in the young Lucas.
However, I can’t get myself to go against this Mizzou team. I still think Mitchell is the best overall player on the floor, and he’s been pretty unstoppable no matter the opponent.
Plus, the Tigers have more legit shooting threats, and those looks will be open for both teams.
Miami was great at taking care of business against lesser competition this season. Mizzou had some head scratchers, but it has a higher ceiling.
That’s what I’m chasing here in March.
My Pick: Missouri ML +108
