Iowa State vs. LSU Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Over/Under To Bet For NCAA Tournament First Round On Friday
Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Eric Gaines (LSU)
- LSU has off-court issues. Iowa State can't score beyond Izaiah Brockington.
- With that in mind, find out how our college basketball analysts are betting this first-round NCAA Tournament matchup.
- Find their picks and predictions based on the odds for 6-seeded LSU against 11-seeded Iowa State.
Iowa State vs. LSU Odds
|Iowa State Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
No. 6 seed LSU (22-11, 9-9 in the SEC) tips off against No. 11 seed Iowa State (20-12, 7-11 in the Big 12) in Milwaukee Friday afternoon.
LSU will be making its third consecutive and 24th overall appearance in the NCAA Tournament. This will be Iowa State’s 21st time in the Big Dance.
LSU is one of seven teams from a stacked SEC that made the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers were 1-1 in the SEC conference tourney, losing to Arkansas, 79-67.
Iowa State mounted an incredible comeback this season under first-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger, winning 18 more games than last season. Only four first-year head coaches have taken their teams to the Big Dance after taking over a team with a losing season.
Both teams are top-ranked nationally in defensive efficiency. Look for this game to be a defensive-centric back-and-forth battle between two schools that have never shared the hardwood before.
By Doug Ziefel
Iowa State may be one of the most slept on teams in the field. However, the Clones have multiple components pointing toward them pulling off an upset.
Let’s start with where they thrive. The Cyclones’ defense is among the best in the nation, as it ranks 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency and seventh in turnover percentage.
Their defense has allowed them to escape with victories over some of the best teams in the Big 12, such as Texas Tech and Texas.
Secondly, they have a guy who can take over a game when he gets hot. That man is Izaiah Brockington, and we saw him get hot early in the season.
Brockington’s efforts led the Cyclones to victories over Iowa, Creighton and Memphis. He is a high percentage shooter who takes nearly 30% of the team’s shots per game. His performance will likely be the difference between victory and defeat in this matchup.
The Tigers may be the loneliest team when millions of college basketball fans fill out their March Madness bracket. The NCAA violations were announced directly after a loss to Arkansas in the SEC Tournament.
Head coach Will Wade has been fired, along with associate head coach Bill Armstrong. Assistant Kevin Nickelberry will be the interim against Iowa State and throughout the tournament.
Despite the off-court issues, this is still one of the most talented rosters from a defensive perspective. LSU is top-15 in defensive effective field goal percentage and turnover and rebound rate.
The Tigers are one of the best in the nation at defending transition offenses or isolation and screens in the half-court. The emergence of Tari Eason has provided LSU with a top-20 individual rank in steal percentage and fouls drawn.
Where LSU gets into trouble is fouling. The Tigers rank 331st in defensive foul rate, and opposing teams are in the bonus early throughout each half in most games.
Any opponent that can defend the rim against the athleticism of the LSU offense, while hitting attempts from the charity stripe, may show the Tigers the exit door from March Madness.
Iowa State vs. LSU Betting Pick
Both programs have been defensive juggernauts this season. LSU enters the game ranked eighth nationally in AdjD, whereas Iowa State ranks 11th in the same metric.
LSU ranks sixth in the nation in defensive turnover ratio, forcing a change of possession on 25.3% of plays. The Tigers also play excellent shot defense, ranking 15th in the nation.
Iowa State is equally as good forcing change of possessions, ranking sixth nationally with a forced turnover on 24.5% of plays.
On offense, both teams rank tied for 298th in offensive turnover ratio, giving up the rock on 20.4% of possessions.
LSU and Iowa State both shoot poorly from beyond the arc, ranking in the bottom third of teams nationally.
I’m projecting the total for this game to be 120.3 points. Defense will be the feature to this game, and I expect turnovers to be the deciding factor in a low-scoring affair.
Look for both teams to cause havoc for the opposing offense
Total trends this season are in favor of the under, with LSU going 14-19 (58.6% under) against the total, while Iowa State is 15-17 (53.1% under).
Pick: Under 128.5 (Play to 128)
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