The crown jewel of the sports calendar, the NCAA Tournament, is about to begin. While the madness and upsets often steal some of the headlines and create core memories for fans, an appearance in the Final Four is the achievement that schools celebrate with banners.
This college basketball season has been incredibly top-heavy, with the top three of Duke, Arizona, and Michigan combining for a 95-7 record. Those teams have all taken turns throughout the season as the favorite to cut down the nets, but plenty of teams are good enough to pull off an upset and make a magical run of their own.
For anyone interested in making predictions on the sum of seeds to reach the Final Four, Kalshi allows users to place real money on the outcome in most states. Additionally, we have a Kalshi promo code to help get you started.
Sum of Seeds in the Final Four Odds, Predictions
Predicting the sum of seeds to make the Final Four can be viewed through a lot of different lenses. If you truly believe in the dominant top three making the Final Four, you're essentially predicting what seed (or even which team) you think will come out of the South region.
Last season, all four teams in the Final Four were No. 1 seeds. While they played some close games along the way, those four teams dominated a very chalky tournament overall. This year, the chances of all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four again are listed at just 8% on Kalshi, despite the top three teams being just as good as last year. Those odds aren't great, given that four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four last year, and before that, it had most recently happened 17 years prior, in 2008.
The final No. 1 seed this year, Florida, is attempting to repeat as a national champion, but the Gators are barely rated higher on KenPom than the No. 2 seed in their region, Houston, and the No. 3 seed in that region, Illinois. While three No. 1 seeds and one of Houston or Illinois would still make for an incredibly chalky Final Four, either outcome would be an example of the sum of seeds being somewhere from 5 to 6, which currently has relatively healthy odds on Kalshi.
If you are pessimistic about the No. 1 seeds given recent injury struggles or other reasons, picking the sum of seeds to fall between 7 and 8 also has solid value. Even if two No. 1 seeds made the Final Four, that would be the correct choice if either of the other regions produced a No. 3 seed and a No. 2 seed. The No. 2 seeds this year also have enough pedigree, whether you value Houston, a championship game participant last year, or UConn and Purdue, who faced off in the 2024 National Championship Game.
The last sum of seeds that has solid value is the 9 to 10 range, which would either require a Final Four like 2015 when three No. 1 seeds made it, but No. 7 seed Michigan State crashed the party, or a Final Four like 2012 where an Anthony Davis-led Kentucky (No. 1 seed) won it all, but the rest of the Final Four was filled by two No. 2 seeds and a No. 4 seed.
If you want to bet on absolute chaos in one region, despite the hype surrounding the top teams in the country, betting on the sum of seeds to fall between 15 and 20 is a wide enough range that also has happened recently – most notably, in 2024, when No. 11 seed NC State crashed the Final Four party, and in 2021 when No. 11 seed UCLA did the same.
Still, in both 2021 and 2024, there were two No. 1 seeds in the Final Four, despite the overall seed total reaching relatively high numbers. Even with a few dominant teams likely to advance far, all it takes is one team of destiny to provide us with some amazing entertainment and a high seed total.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Also, Kalshi’s refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once they meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
