As I have all season, I will be sharing my projected scores for every March Madness matchup here at Action Network.
These are based on simple offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, along with adjusted tempo metrics, though with a few small tweaks to better reflect the market. One of those NCAA Tournament-specific tweaks is a slightly dampening pace factor to better reflect lower-scoring neutral-court matchups.
For what it’s worth, this model performed very well this season. I tracked the spread and total results for games that featured a three-point difference between my projections and the market (for either the favorite or the underdog, over or under).
Here are the season-to-date results, assuming average odds of -110:
While a three-point difference seems like the best cutoff point for a wager, you can also use these projections as an extra resource for your own March Madness handicapping, rather than blindly tailing any "edge" I find.
Sadly, these projections didn't perform well during the first two rounds (2-4 on sides, 2-4 on totals). It could be small-sample-size variance, or perhaps it's tougher to project games in the NCAA Tournament.
Regardless, here are my NCAA Tournament Projections for the Sweet 16 games on Thursday, March 26, and Friday, March 27.
Happy handicapping!
Note: If you ever have questions about a projection, feel free to hit me up on Twitter: @tannerstruth.
