Picking the right Cinderella in the NIL/Portal era feels like a rigged game.
But sportsbooks have adapted to last spring’s chalky first round by offering massive payouts this time around.
Instead of leaning into just one upset, let’s cast a wider net with a four-team NCAA Tournament Round Robin by twos.
No. 11 South Florida (+188) Over No. 6 Louisville
The Bulls profile as a team capable of making the second weekend for a few key reasons. They’ve embraced the modern “Rim & 3” approach. They attack the tin, get to the line relentlessly and take 29 triples per game (22nd).
When you blend that approach with the second-fastest tempo in the field, you have a potential March darling on your hands.
If you consult Bart Torvik’s March Madness comps for this season's USF team, you’ll find a lot of Big Dance success for similar squads that play like USF.
Dating back to the 2008 NCAA Tournament, 10 teams feature similar statistical profiles to South Florida. Those 10 teams averaged .8 wins per NCAA Tournament, with 2008 Western Kentucky (No. 12) and 2010 Washington (No. 11) both appearing in the Sweet 16 as double-digit seeds.
After opening in the +250 moneyline range, this number cratered and could end up closing in the +170 neighborhood. Mikel Brown Jr.’s back injury has injected additional intrigue into this one because the difference between Brown playing at 100% and him sitting on the bench in street clothes is gargantuan.
Brown is a microwave capable of dropping 40+, as he did earlier this season when he made 10 treys against Baylor. As a freshman, he’s also capable of an off-night, evidenced by three games of five or more turnovers in his last nine starts.
The Louisville offense takes a major step back when he’s off the court. Without Brown, the Cardinals got drilled by Tennessee and didn’t have the firepower to hang with Duke and Virginia.
One noticeable difference is that without Brown slashing to the hoop, the Cards rarely get to the line. They finished outside the top 300 in free-throw rate for that five-week stretch without Brown in December and January.
If Brown is limited, rusty, or altogether unavailable, USF has the firepower to spark the upset. All five USF starters average north of 11 points per game, and the insanely athletic Izaiyah Nelson (15 PPG, 10 RPG, three stocks) can hold his own in the paint.
No. 12 Akron (+260) Over No. 5 Texas Tech
If the Brown injury caught your attention, let’s take it a step further. Texas Tech was a national title contender with a full deck, having knocked off Duke, Houston and Arizona. But then JT Toppin tore his ACL, and now the Red Raiders are careening toward a first-round exit.
The Red Raiders have lost three straight, and their rebounding numbers have fallen off a cliff without Toppin’s Rodmanesque production on the glass.
Since Toppin’s departure, they’ve fallen outside the top 300 in defensive rebounding percentage, they can’t turn anyone over (358th) and they’ve become overly dependent on Christian Anderson.
Their star point guard has averaged 37 minutes and 14 shots per game without Toppin. That usage wouldn’t be so much of an issue if not for his sizable turnover uptick. Evan Miya’s player evaluation grades him out with a “D” in the turnover department (11th percentile). He had an 18-turnover stretch across three games alone.
And now he’s battling a groin injury after slipping on the Big 12’s glass/digital monstrosity of a court. If he isn’t 100% the Red Raiders are in big trouble.
Even if Anderson is a full-go, John Groce can build a game plan to limit him. Groce was named the Hugh Durham National Coach of the Year in 2025 (top mid-major head coach), and this season's team is even better.
Tavari Johnson is a by-any-means-necessary point guard, capable of facilitating or taking a game over from long range (37.3% 3PT).
And unlike many of the mid-majors in the field, Akron has balance with a veteran frontcourt led by Amani Lyles. He’s a poor man’s Toppin. He recorded nine double-doubles in MAC play and added some long-range touch this offseason, improving upon his 3-point percentage by six percent while doubling his attempts.
As a team, Akron is eighth in effective field goal percentage, and its tempo generates nearly 15 fast break points per game.
That can help offset the Zips' draw against the defensive mastermind Grant McCasland.
No. 12 Northern Iowa (+460) Over No. 5 St. John's
If you’re looking for optimism at this time of the season, at least in the Cinderella department, it's often attached to high-scoring teams. If this player gets hot from 3-point range or this team puts up big points in transition, perhaps they could spark the upset.
But Northern Iowa offers something completely different from a giant-slayer perspective. The Panthers will shrink this game down with their glacial pace (363rd) and use their pack-line defense to make life miserable in the half-court.
The beauty of the pack-line is that teams rarely caught out of position around the hoop, which means they rebound at an elite level (DReb%, 31st) and rarely foul (15.5, 37th).
And since getting fully healthy, the Panthers have found more success on the offensive end. With Tristan Smith back in the starting lineup, the Panthers are fourth in effective field goal percentage since February 8.
Ben Jacobson is a five-time Missouri Valley Coach of the Year with four NCAA tournament wins on his resume. He’ll have a game plan in place to deny St. John’s easy looks.
If the Johnnies are required to knock down jumpers all night, we have a puncher’s chance of pulling off this upset. Rick Pitino’s team finished 212th in 3-point accuracy and barely cracked the top 200 in terms of effective field goal percentage.
The Johnnies live and die on the offensive glass and in transition. The Red Storm ranks seventh nationally in extra scoring chances (+5.5) and 34th in fast break points (14.1 PPG). Northern Iowa is equipped to limit them in both departments.
The final piece is the travel component. St. John’s just played three games in three days, and now it's being sent across the country to play in San Diego. The difference between the crowd for SJU-UConn at MSG and the one we’ll see on Thursday at the Viejas Arena will be night and day.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see a sleepy start and UNI clinging to a small lead at halftime. From there, it’s anybody’s game, and at +460, I want to be holding the big ticket.
No. 13 Hofstra (+600) Over No. 4 Alabama
Let’s close this Round Robin with a big swing. Alabama may be without Aden Holloway, the team’s best perimeter shooter and second-leading scorer (16.8 PPG, 43.8% 3PT).
Holloway “will be off the team until he goes through the school's investigation process, which is conducted outside of the athletic department through the UA Office of Student Conduct,” according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
This makes it highly unlikely he’ll be available to play on Friday. That’s a big blow for any team to take right before the Big Dance.
Is Hofstra positioned to pounce? Absolutely. The Pride enter the NCAA Tournament on an 11-1 run, equipped with a well-balanced offense and a rapidly improving defense. All five starters have at least one game of 20 or more points this season, demonstrating Speedy Claxton’s pick-your-poison approach.
But it's been the Pride's defensive makeover that's turned them from an underwhelming CAA team to a March Madness sleeper.
In the month of January, Hofstra suffered a five-game losing streak while grading out as the 250th-best defense, per Bart Torvik. How much did they improve after that? By leaps and bounds, to put it lightly. Since February 1, Hofstra has ranked 32nd in adjusted defensive efficiency and a matching 32nd in defending the 3-point arc.
But wait, it gets better. The Pride led the nation in the past six weeks in both effective field goal percentage and 2-point defense. They’re contesting everything inside of 20 feet, rotating with urgency and closing out on shooters.
The results have been eye-opening, and they’ll need that kind of defensive energy to slow one of the country’s best offenses led by Labaron Philon Jr.
If they pull off a small miracle and hold Alabama below 80 points, they'll be in this one late because Alabama isn’t comfortable playing in lower-scoring games. In fact, Nate Oats' team is 1-4 SU when held below 80 points on the season.
The CAA Player of the Year — Cruz Davis — and his backcourt mate — Preston Edmead — just scored 41 points per game through their conference tournament. Cruz is a multi-level scorer, and Edmead has grown more and more confident in his perimeter shotmaking as the season has progressed.
If they keep up that scoring pace, Alabama will be sweating late in this game because the Tide remain a lackluster defensive outfit more interested in running and gunning than creating stops in the half-court.
